I've been down the Bitcoin power law rabbit hole for a while. The basic idea: plot BTC's entire price history on a log-log scale, and it's almost a perfectly straight line. 15+ years of data, every cycle, every crash, every blow-off top — it all fits the same regression.

I wanted to turn this into something practical for my own stacking, so I built a full platform around it: https://timetobuybitcoin.com

https://m.stacker.news/132082

The model & oscillator

The tool takes the power law model and derives an oscillator — a simple 0–100% reading that shows where BTC sits relative to its own long-term trend. It calculates a "fair value" corridor with five confidence bands (floor, lower, model, upper, ceiling) and maps the current price into zones:

• 0–25%: Deep value. Historically the best accumulation windows.
• 25–50%: Below trend. Good stacking territory.
• 50–75%: Above trend. Caution.
• 75–100%: Overheated. Every time it went above 90%, a major correction followed within months.

The chart is free and updates in real time with EMA/SMA crossovers. No account needed.

AI-powered analysis

The platform uses AI (Claude) to generate market analysis grounded in real data — not generic commentary. Twice a week, the system pulls the latest indicators and technicals, and produces a full report with a specific DCA recommendation based on the current oscillator reading. There's also a daily technical chart analysis where Claude reads the actual StockCharts images and combines traditional TA with the power law model context.

Zone-weighted DCA backtester

Plain DCA is good. But what if you adjust your buys based on the oscillator — stack heavier when the model says cheap, ease off when it says expensive?

I built a backtester to test this. You set your start date (anything from 2010), DCA amount, frequency, and it runs flat DCA vs. model-weighted DCA side by side. The result: the zone-adjusted approach accumulated ~30% more BTC with the same total capital invested.

The backtester also handles leverage simulation, stop-loss, margin calls, and logs every single transaction in a detailed event log so you can see exactly what happened and when. It's built for people who want to seriously optimize their stacking strategy, not just eyeball a chart.

Learning section

Three levels of educational content. The beginner section is free and covers the basics — how to buy, security, common mistakes. The deeper levels get into DCA optimization, oscillator-based position sizing, cycle management, and risk strategies that most people learn the hard way.

Some patterns from the data

• Every bear market bottom touched or came close to the floor band
• Every cycle top reached the upper band
• The oscillator has never given a false signal at the extremes (<10% or >90%)
• Right now we're deep in the buy zone — the kind of reading that historically preceded major moves

What's free vs. paid

The chart, oscillator, and beginner content are completely free. The paid tier ($4.90/mo or $39.90/yr) unlocks the AI reports, daily technical analysis, full backtester, and advanced learning content.

Tech stack

Solo build. Node.js, SQLite, Canvas 2D (no charting libraries), passwordless auth, Stripe. Privacy-first — custom analytics, no third-party trackers. Runs on a single VPS.

Happy to answer questions about any of it. And if you think the power law will eventually break — I'd genuinely love to hear why.