“Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28.”
“Most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours… and bought ‘Yes’ shares… just hours before explosions were reported.”
“The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.”
“One account… purchased more than 560,000 ‘Yes’ shares at about 10.8 cents… paid out near $560,000.”
“Bubblemaps… showed the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar paths.”
These wallets acted like they already knew.
Eventually they will likely try to mitigate this will betting maximums on new accounts.
They certainly might. I believe the first prediction markets did that with presidential elections.
not surprising, a huge amount of people must have known about the attack once final preparations were underway.
and after various recent cases of Polymarket bettors getting deanonymised and investigated, it should be no surprise that a fresh account is used for this.
it might be a little disappointing to discover it's just Barron Trump again...
Prediction markets are supposed to surface information, not reward insiders. If this holds up, it’s a credibility test for Polymarket.