In 2021 the hedge fund manager Ray Dalio wrote a book called "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order". The book is accompanied by two video summaries on YouTube, one in 5 minutes, one in 40. Got interested through these videos, now I'm reading the book, and it's really insightful!
The tldr is that in his methodology, historical global empires (the Dutch, the British, the Americans...) have a quantifiable rising – maintaining – falling trajectory of about 250 years. The general theme is that we are currently living in the period where the US is starting to fall behind on his key economical and social metrics, is divided internally, and another world power is rising to the challenge. Typically the "passing of the torch" was accompanied by a local conflict.
Dalio makes a lot of interesting points about understanding one's place in history – for example that we rarely anticipate events that have always been happening historically (pandemics, wars, economic crises), because they happened to different generations, and that this incapability to anticipate such events is a recurring theme in humankind also. These historical cycles are typically longer than one single human life, hence this constant running in circles.
He developed his research to deliver better results to his stakeholders, so economy, monetary policy and reserve currencies are an important topic to his understanding of these empires. I haven't yet encountered him discuss bitcoin in the book, but if we are to believe his narrative, China's becoming a global dominant may become a very good reason even for ordinary people to get into bitcoin and privacy, given China's current stance on cryptocurrency and surveillance policing.
Have you read the book and have something to add, or correct? If not, check these videos out and let's talk about it, I'm curious to hear what you think.