Substack will need to adopt Nostr this decade in order to survive to 2030.

Substack Growth

• The company's growth since their launch in 2017 has been insane. They have done an incredible job of riding the "anti-establishment" movement and empowering individuals to monetise & build new bottom-up communities. At a time when legacy media institutions are failing society.
• Given they are not yet a public company, up-to-date subscriber numbers are not available but we can expect that their subscriber numbers are far higher than they were 2 years prior at the end of 2021:
  https://api.backlinko.com/app/uploads/2021/05/substack-paying-subscribers-over-time.png
• Their recommendation engine and closed system has worked well for them up until this point, generating up to 20% of revenue for creators as a whole. Substack are able to find similar creators/communities to push out to users, rather than advertising externally to non-paying users. However it should be emphasised that 80% of revenue still needs to be generated by creators by attracting new users.
• Currently creators are coerced into adopting Substack as the primary gate for their community, given that there exists no API functionality. So plugging Substack into your existing community is far trickier to achieve. Creators depend on Substack to NOT censor their content and to cross-promote posts inside their closed system.
• If Substack growth was to stagnate however, creators will not be able to keep topping-up the punch-bowl with fresh juice.

Headwinds

• Substack laid off 14% of their staff previously and abandoned plans to raise additional venture funding in 2022. They are not currently public, meaning fewer finance options are available to them.
• Substack currently takes 10% of all fees through their platform and if subscription revenues were to take a hit and new subscribers were to stall, they may be forced to raise fees to 15 or 20%. That would almost certainly in turn lead to those with established communities to take their subscribers elsewhere. Particularly as their payment processor takes their cut too.

Calls for Censorship

• This past month, Substack has come under scrutiny for not censoring "nazi-like" content. The mainstream media was overwhelming on this. With WSJ, The Verge and NYT placing them in the crosshairs. Substack have since refused to back-down and their CEO on his own newsletter confirmed as so.
• Substack are acutely aware that if they demonetize or restrict content, that it will lead to the downfall of their business and a mass exodus from their creator platform.
• Their terms of service of course still include the following:

We reserve the right to remove any content from Substack at any time, for any reason (including, but not limited to, if someone alleges you contributed that content in violation of these Terms), in our sole discretion, and without notice.

• Substack do not have control over how their content is distributed to users (majority are outside the Substack app). It may therefore be possible in the years ahead for fewer emails to make their way to their destination. A new type of shadow-banning could emerge. Companies like X/Twitter (who are now competing with their own subscription service) may also prevent Substack links & threads from gaining traction inside their consumer-facing 'super apps'. Substack is extremely vulnerable.

Vulnerability

• Substack as a company is HIGHLY dependent upon big tech and legacy social media for new user acquisition. It does not control it's own growth engine, or it's own destiny.
• The team at Substack has recently introduced a 'notes' feature with mixed results. The intention was to lure people to download and use their app and avoid the dependency on Twitter/YouTube for new signups. The jury is still out whether this has worked, but with 10-15% readership inside the app for communities - I would conclude that is not yet the case.
• Substack up until now has only had Stripe setup as a payment processor. Stripe retains credit card details and emails of those who pay for any service via the Substack platform. This would have become a problem for Substack, which is why they have a beta for accepting direct debit & bank account payments:
  https://m.stacker.news/10336
• Today, less than 10% of content is viewed through the Substack app on iOS/Android. Almost all content is read via email (70-80% depending on the community, with the next biggest source being the desktop site). Email deserves it's own topic.

Email

• Substack relies upon a flawed protocol in the form of email. I will soon be posting more about email privacy in the ~privacy territory. Keep an eye out for that.
• What we often forget of is that every email and every piece of content distributed by Substack can be read and censored by big tech.
• Google and Apple make up for the vast majority of email clients currently (86.78%), and given they can and do have access to emails passing through their clients - this may become more of an issue moving forward for businesses like Substack.

Why Nostr is the solution

• I would argue Substack revenue is more vulnerable than any other company to increasing calls for censorship. More so than X (who have their own app user-base), more so than Google (who have YouTube, mobile hardware and a search monopoly) and more so than legacy media like WSJ and others.
• Substack needs to adopt Nostr because their values (listed below) depend on censorship resistance.
  1. Great work is valuable and deserves to be rewarded with money.
  2. The people have the power.
  3. A free press and free speech are fundamental to a trustworthy media system.
  4. We help readers take back their mind.
• Without new subscribers and without funding from public markets to get more active app users, Substack will need to raise their revenue-share in short order. This will in turn push creators to look elsewhere.
• If Substack was to adopt Nostr, they will safeguard their future against increasing calls for censorship and allow them to pursue their courageous values in the face of their dependencies on publicly-listed third parties.
• The switch would not be easy, it would demand they overhaul their infrastructure and reliance on email. It would mean they'd have to at long last support markdown formatting for content creators. And they would need to adopt Bitcoin lightning payments.
• If Substack don't, this is a huge opportunity for Nostr clients to replicate the Substack model and eat their lunch. To allow subscriptions in private communities that can cross-sell with one another. Communities with built-in chat, engaging long-form posts and even podcasts, videocalls & badges embedded.
• My bet is on the latter in these next few years. Substack may be eaten from all sides - by the Nostr open-network, by legacy media and by big tech. Therefore my conclusion is that...

Substack must pivot to Nostr & Bitcoin to still be around by 2030.