[...]As data from RealClear Polling suggests, Trump still leads polls by 1.7 points on average when looking at the period between July 5 and July 25. Harris led in three out of the 15 polls analyzed. Eleven polls put Trump ahead by between one to seven points, while one poll showed a tie. The average, however, is slightly skewed due to two polls by Rasmussen Reports and Emerson putting Trump ahead by seven and six points, respectively. It's also relevant to note that the Emerson poll was conducted between July 7 and 8, two weeks before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Looking at the figures for a Trump-Biden matchup in the Emerson results, the incumbent President was polling three points behind the former President.Due to the electoral system in the U.S., the popular vote can only be seen as a rough estimate of the final result. The Electoral College aims for a proportionate representation of each state in the presidential election. It selects a group of electors "equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress", according to Article II of the U.S. Constitution. These electors then unanimously vote for the winning ticket in the corresponding state.[...]
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @jp305 30 Jul
Why can't we find winner projections?
Is it too hard to do given the nature of the electoral system?
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies 30 Jul
It's too hard to extrapolate a sample. In every other statistic it is more than sufficient to poll 1000 suburban moms and extrapolate by age, financial standing, job industry etc to all suburban moms in the US. But in voting it's different because the difference between 49.9 and 50.1 isn't negligible - it matters a lot.
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62 sats \ 0 replies \ @JuanMiguel 30 Jul
They will cheat, again. They always do. Never trust election results of any country.
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24 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 30 Jul
I think it is really too early to tell.
Half the time the news is wrong about the statistics.
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145 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Jul
Here's the RCP average:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @TNStacker 30 Jul
If you're gonna read polls. Go with RCP averages!
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Jul
I agree. I used to like 538's aggregates even more, but I haven't checked it out since Nate Silver left.
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16 sats \ 0 replies \ @TNStacker 30 Jul
https://m.stacker.news/42519
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32 sats \ 0 replies \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears 30 Jul
Yeah, we definitely need both more state-specific polls, and also more data down the road once Harris has chosen her veep. Between the assignation attempt, Biden dropping out, from Trump's awful choice of Vance, that's three big events that are all impacting surveys (most of which include polls from before and after all of these).
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31 sats \ 3 replies \ @jgbtc 30 Jul
Probably more insightful to look at betting odds than polls.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies 30 Jul
I think this too. Betting markets can just take more factors into account than any study with statistics ever could. Also betting markets incentivize arbitraging to the correct result
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Signal312 30 Jul
Which websites do you look at, to get the odds on elections?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 30 Jul
Poly market
Predict it
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41 sats \ 1 reply \ @cristaiji 30 Jul
Harris really isn’t popular at all as far as I can tell. They have to use fake followers to get her a presence on social media. The only way she can win is through election rigging and the Trump camp will be ready for that this time. So another reason for the deep state to try to kill Trump.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Zenul_Abidin 31 Jul
I think you got it backwards bud
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 30 Jul
It's seems Trump is leading although this isnt a final result
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @5e5d0604a5 30 Jul outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.