Inflation is down and a recession is unlikely. What went right?www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/29/inflation-is-down-and-a-recession-is-unlikely-what-went-right
1512 sats \ 20 comments \ @south_korea_ln 30 Aug econ
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552 sats \ 2 replies \ @Catcher 30 Aug
What went right? Nothing. They just rigged the statistics in their favour. Also, if from 2021 to 2023 all prises went up 20-50% and 2023 to 2024 they went up just 1-2% or even decreased somewhere you can proudly say we have 2% inflation now and it was a soft landing. Only you don't mention that the plane blew up in the air before this landing and everyone on board died.
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64 sats \ 0 replies \ @Akg10s33 30 Aug
Wow, excellent answer😅👍
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @flat24 30 Aug
I totally agree with you... IMO they will not accept the recession and will avoid it as much as they can, and they will always lie to our faces, only they know the real data. And I think they will never really warn us about anything, we will really know when we are already there and the recession explodes in our face. I only have one thing clear, and there is only one number that matters to me, which I know is not manipulated. 21 M🍊
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186 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Aug
Part of what went right, is Europe and China mismanaging their economies and driving capital to America.
There are also some pretty serious signs of stress in the American economy, so some of this "Why is the economy so strong?" talk might be counting the chickens before they've hatched.
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31 sats \ 1 reply \ @jgbtc 30 Aug
This is worthless regime propaganda. But it might have some value as a reverse indicator that very bad times are imminent.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 30 Aug
exactly, the Economist is now a useless rag unlike in 1998
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @BTCLNAT 31 Aug
Inflation has dropped!!!
That is what the reports of those who have caused inflation in its form of excess money and not due to a deficit of products say.
The increase in interest rates was nothing more than a shameless measure to solve, with the suffering of others, the problems that they themselves created.
Mr. Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve, an entity that manages 12 Federal Reserve Banks, which are not Banks, nor are they Reserves of anything nor are they Federal. They are only issuing and printing entities of dollars that have caused inflation in the United States and that the Americans are paying for. Well, Mr. Jerome says that it is time for the policy to be adjusted. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
STUPIDITY IS NOTHING MORE THAN WANTING TO OBTAIN DIFFERENT RESULTS ALWAYS DOING THE SAME THING
The only solution to inflation is a deflationary asset, and fiat money is not one. BITCOIN definitely YES
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 31 Aug
The definition of insanity but stupidity also fits
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @DawnoftheDead 30 Aug
they have perfected the art of avoiding recession without fixing anything
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21 sats \ 9 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 30 Aug
Although consecutive falls in national income represent one definition of recession, as any economist will tell you, a proper recession is like pornography: you know it when you see it. People lose their jobs by the million, corporate earnings plummet and firms close. None of this has happened.
(Emphasis mine)
Curious choice in analogy...
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31 sats \ 7 replies \ @supertestnet 30 Aug
The line "you know it when I see it" is a reference to a famous (among lawyers) Supreme Court case about pornography: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 31 Aug
https://m.stacker.news/49131
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Bell_curve 30 Aug
The easiest definition is 2 straight quarters of negative GDP growth, i.e. GDP shrinks for 2 straight quarters (annualized).
There is also unemployment and consumer confidence.
The definition doesn't have to be sentient and subjective
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63 sats \ 4 replies \ @supertestnet 30 Aug
unemployment numbers can be artificially raised by excluding unemployed people who haven't filed for unemployment, and further gamed by making it difficult to file for unemployment
GDP can be gamed through inflation -- e.g. hyperinflationary countries have massive GDP growth when GDP is measured in their domestic currency
I don't know how you would game consumer confidence numbers -- maybe through selection bias, e.g. only poll people at the mall
I remember being called by a voter polling organization once and their first question was what tv show I watched during prime time. I told them none and they said they have no further questions. I think that was an example of selection bias -- perhaps they didn't want to poll people who break the mold of what American consumerism is supposed to look like
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 31 Aug
If you don’t watch TV prime time then you probably don’t watch TV news or vote?
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @supertestnet 31 Aug
you probably don’t watch TV news
Correct
or vote
Incorrect in my case. I just got information about candidates from sources other than the tv. E.g. I used the "on the issues" website which lists an assortment of political topics with quotations from candidates about those topics. But I think the pollsters didn't want to poll people like me -- they only wanted to poll normies. Which seems like selection bias. The polls almost become a mirror of "do you watch Fox or CNN/NBC/MSNBC?" which rarely offer nuanced analysis. So you end up polling only low information voters and presenting that as "this is a snapshot of the nation's political stance" when it's only a snapshot of what the non-thinkers think.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 31 Aug
Polls have always had selection bias.
Most voters don’t think. Politics is more emotion than reason.
Most voters are single issue: climate change or petroleum or tax policy and regulation or cuts in spending
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 30 Aug
Real GDP takes inflation into account vs nominal GDP
My point is that there are quantitative metrics for defining a recession and those same metrics are imperfect because they can be gamed.
Lastly, government can redefine a recession to mean X straight quarters of negative GDP growth where X is normally 2 but can be changed to 3 or 4
Consumer confidence is subjective because it's a survey or poll but still a useful measure for comparison purposes.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 31 Aug
The Economist writing and analysis have deteriorated since 2000. They repeat and disseminate regime propaganda regardless of their laissez faire principles
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 31 Aug
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm
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