0 sats \ 13 replies \ @Satosora 2 Oct \ on: Retirement Plan to Sell 8% of Your Stack PA Jeff Ross bitcoin
He makes some good comments, but it is all based on btc rising in value.
Well of course. Do you actually believe they won't keep printing fiat? Do you actually believe bitcoin will not take some of the market share away from other things people buy to store their wealth?
I'm sure you do. But the question is when and how much. Its an open question. Unlike many bitcoiners I don't think we are on the brink of the dollar collapsing. I mean it could happen soon but I doubt it. If it does, it won't be pretty for Americans or anyone really. Now I think it will collapse as all fiat currencies do but it likely has a longer life than we think.
IMO far to many bitcoiners are looking to buy bitcoin and check out. Retire. Guys, that sounds so boring. There is always gonna be work to do. I just want to not have my work squandered away and leave my boys something to build a legacy with.
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Right, but as our money inflates to zero....will investing keep up?
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Think about it... I don't think you need me to explain this.
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Probable that China continues to grow while USA continues to decline.
When exactly the transition to Chinese global resource hegemony taking over that the US now holds will be undeniable is arguable - but the trend is clear.
China is building massive global infrastructure across Asia and globally while the infrastructure and manufacturing capacity of the west is in constant chronic decline.
Kids in the west are far more fascinated with financial engineering than structural/productive engineering while kids in China are far more focused on productive engineering. The CCP politburo is majority composed of trained engineers in contrast to western politicians who are mostly bankers, lawyers and corporate lobbyist proxies.
I guesstimate 5-10 years and China will be on equal or dominant position relative to US/The West.
The wars in Middle East and Ukraine are proxy wars between US and China and the outcome of neither is certain- but what is certain is that China is increasingly confident and challenging the US global monetary and resource hegemony.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west
China is unlikely to look favourably upon Bitcoin- the entire ethos of Bitcoin being a very western one and alien to the collectivist Chinese mindset.
This is the greatest near term threat to Bitcoin market value IMO.
Bitcoin will continue to be of value as the west declines but it seems very unlikely to become the new dominant global currency if China becomes dominant.
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Have you studied The Opium Wars?
Britain forced itself upon China and by using Hong Kong as a base for banking gained entry and control over trade in China. China suffered more than a century of humiliation and only in recent decades have reached a degree of development and capacity to respond to the reality of western imperialism. One aspect of a logical response will be to understand the potency of monetary hegemony- control of trade payments- and China clearly does understand that ability to make (and sanction) international trade payments is highly strategic - it after all perhaps the wests most potent strategic lever- having been applied to Iran and Russia- and yet Iran and Russia are now still functional economies - more than that able to invade and attack the wests allies and associates, with Chinas support in trade and trade payments.
China is the largest trading economy in the world- there are few if any nations that can afford not to trade with China- it is inevitable that China - like every predecessor in history to have held such a dominant trade position, will gain monetary dominance.
Its not so much a matter of whether they want to, than that they must.
The west with its growing insolvency cannot continue to provision a credible global trade payments protocol- unless you were to consider Bitcoin, which (unfortunately) China is not and will not!
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I know Ray Dalio thinks China will likely be the next superpower. In his book he talks pretty candid about how the US might want to preempt an attack on China before they get too powerful. One could argue that that is already happening through economic actions.
What makes BTC special is that it isn't tied to any state. Its working well and is continuing to grow. Nation states will come to realize why they need bitcoin in time. Even if China demands you buy in their currency, doesn't mean you need to hold onto the sh$tcoin. When you need Yuan to buy something, swap it with your BTC reserve.
Are you arguing that China is going to destroy bitcoin somehow? You know how many times they've banned it right?
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No I am not arguing China is going to destroy Bitcoin.
I am saying that as the USD declines in value from being ceaselessly debased to enable chronic trade deficits and fiscal deficits Chinese currency will be increasingly predominant in trade...as China now dominates global trade in manufactured goods and commodities.
As China increasingly dominates global liquidity their natural hostility to Bitcoin will negatively affect its value.
Ultimately a currency must have value as a MoE and SoV- Bitcoin is still largely ineffective as a MoE- even western governments have effectively obstructed its use in that role to a significant extent.
Bitcoin has been a very strong SoV to date but medium- long term faces real challenges as China rises and USA sinks.
Bitcoin has been shifted even in the west where it has been tolerated (but with significant obstruction around use as a MoE) toward being largely seen and used as a speculative commodity, not a currency. That is a real problem, even before you consider Chinas constant rise.
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Characterising a fact based and reasoned opinion stated in good faith on a what may be a major threat to western civilisation, as a rant, when you have failed to respond with any credible reasoned retort is not a contest of ideas or even polite.
We still enjoy supposed freedom of speech but I suggest this topic is one that most in power and many not in power prefer to ignore and pretend is not happening.
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There will be many things to sink your life force into going into the future besides btc. Everything has tradeoffs. But even if bitcoin doesn't eat every other store of wealth it will take some market share away from things like gold. This is not really that bullish but even that will make bitcoin's purchasing power insane compared to today.
One need not be a fatalist to believe bitcoin is going to continue to grow in value. IMO its a very rational view of the future.