Could barely get a Fedex labeled printed back in early March when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. Fedex stopped shipping to both regions at that point and most shipments out of Asia were badly backed up. Compound to that the Shanghai lock down shortly after that went on for several months. China -> US shipments didn't pickup back after china opened up. In fact, US appears to becoming more locally resourceful and independent of Asia exports.

Cumulatively this is a major shift, and Fedex is losing business from most overseas air freight.

FreightAlley on twitter goes into a bit more of what Fedex Missed in forecasting.

Will be interesting to follow how global macro decouples from the old order in the next few months.

recessions feed on themselves until radical innovation leads to a new growth wave.

lack of demand and higher costs cause a business to raise prices which only further contributes to a less demand due to higher prices. this spreads to all areas and the slowdown becomes a depression.

the spiral continues until a boom in a sector of the economy leads to substantial increases in value creation that allows demand to return despite the higher prices. then the economy bootstraps its way out of a depression