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The Too Early Discussion for End of the NBA Cup Group Stage

628 sats \ 33 comments \ @gnilma 30 Nov Stacker_Sports

There is still 1 more night of games to play next Tuesday before the group stage is concluded. Hence, this is the too early discussion for the conclusion of the group stage. I thought I'll throw this one out prematurely to get it in before this week's podcast and maybe stir up some discussions.

As there is only 1 more night of games left to play for the group stage, there are already confirmed winners for numerous groups. Let's talk surprises. I'm very surprised the Hawks are going to win East Group C, and that the Pistons are in position / have a chance to win East Group B on Tuesday night. I'm also surprised the Trail Blazers beat both the TWolves and the Kings, I almost picked the Kings for this round, lucky I didn't (saved myself 5k there). I'm extremely surprised that the almighty Cavs, who are 17-3 already got eliminated from the NBA Cup; out of the 3 losses, 1 was from the defending champs Celtics, but 2 were from the freaking Hawks (Shaq's "caw caw" Hawk call is sounding in the back of my mind as I type this).

East Group A and East Group B will have death matches on Tuesday with the winner of each game winning each group. West Group B looks the most interesting, as all 3 of Suns, Spurs, and OKC have a chance of winning the group on Tuesday, depending on the results of the two games Suns vs Spurs and OKC vs Jazz.

Now let's talk predictions. Of course, as mentioned earlier, the Hawks already won East Group C (no prediction there, just a surprising fact). Of the undecided groups, I think Knicks will beat Magic to win East Group A and Bucks will beat Pistons to win East Group B. Wildcard for East will be the Magic, as they are sitting at +60 in points diff and I expect the Magic vs Knicks game to be a close one. Celtics (currently +23 in point diff) could still win the East wildcard spot, but they need to have a crazy blow out game vs the Bulls (not impossible, but less likely) and/or the Knicks need to beat the crap out of the Magic.

More predictions. In the West, Rockets already won West Group A and Warriors won West Group C, against just facts. Now for predictions, for West Group B, I think Suns will beat Spurs and OKC will beat Jazz. That means both OKC and Suns will be 3-1. Since OKC beat the Suns on their head to head game, OKC will win West Group B. Wildcard is going to be won by the Mavs, as they have a good points diff and I think Mavs will win on Tuesday versus Grizzlies. Suns might make the Wildcard spot if they blow out the Spurs or if the Mavs lose, but my prediction for West wildcard is Mavs. In summary, I predict the following to be the final result of the group stage:

East Knicks Bucks Hawks Wildcard - Magic

West Rockets OKC Warrios Wildcard - Mavs

Now to analyze my chances of winning the contest: not very good if the group stage ends as I predict. I've already used up Knicks, Magic in the East and Rockets, Mavs in the West. That's half of the possible choices gone already. I'll probably run out of picks very quickly or be forced to pick a "more likely to lose" team. So after that long wall of text, I'm crossing my fingers in hoping that my group stage predictions are completely wrong in order to give me a better chance of winning. Go Grizzlies and go Celtics!

Tuesday will probably shape up to be a great night of basketball, with multiple death matches and teams wanting to blowout other teams for the chance to go to Vegas. I'm on chauffer duty every Tuesday night, but I'll make sure to bring my laptop to stream the games while I wait for my kids' art class.

What are your thoughts on the NBA Cup so far? Surprises? Predictions? Let's talk basketball!

You can check out NBA Cup group stage standings below for more perspective. https://www.nba.com/nba-cup/2024/standings?root=nba-cup&root=2024&root=standings&Section=group

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53 sats \ 8 replies \ @7e6e393a56 30 Nov

I must congratulate the work that Ime Udoka has been doing with the Rockets. A team that works very well collectively and is surprising me

20 sats \ 5 replies \ @gnilma OP 30 Nov

The got a really good young core going centered around Sengun and Green.

Fun fact, I saw this article about the Rockets being not interested in trading for Giannis and I had a good laugh. Does Giannis even want to go to the Rockets or the Bucks want pieces from the Rocket to replace Giannis in the first place?

For your entertainment:

The Houston Rockets reportedly aren't interested in "breaking up their core" to pursue a potential trade for Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic.

Instead, the team "remains focused on developing its young players as a collective."

21 sats \ 4 replies \ @7e6e393a56 30 Nov

Yes, the Rockets have a good team, mostly made up of drafted players who will improve as they gain more experience. (Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr, Tari Eason). I also like VanVleet at point guard, giving the team more experience. About Giannis -- someone will be called a genius or an idiot in the future 😂🤣 Only the future will show us the outcome of this choice

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @gnilma OP 30 Nov

Agreed. The Rockets are shaping up to be a great team.

I also like VanVleet at point guard

I love Steady Freddy, he's a big contributor to the Raptors championship run. His performance during the finals was awesome. Many focus on his timely 3pt mades, but probably miss that he was much more effective defending Curry than Lowry.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @7e6e393a56 30 Nov

Without a doubt, VanVleet had a huge contribution to the Raptors' title. I place Van Vleet, Siakam and Serge Ibaka as excellent supports for Kawhi Leonard to lead the team in scoring. Regarding Lowry, I'm suspicious of giving my opinion because I don't like the way he plays

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @gnilma OP 1 Dec

To me, Lowry is the greatest Raptor so far, until someone is able to step up and take his place. He played hard with energy, was aggressive, physical, and was a major part of turning the Raptor from a mediocre team into a championship team.

I think that whole group was special. Don't foeget OG, Powell, Gasol, and arguably Danny Green all contributed to the Raptors' success.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @7e6e393a56 1 Dec

Of course, they were all important led by the brilliant work of Nick Nurse

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 30 Nov

He's a great coach. He just has to keep it in his pants around the boss' wife, so he can hold onto this job.

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @7e6e393a56 30 Nov

I completely agree😂 Maybe he would have already been a champion with the Celtics if he had controlled himself

47 sats \ 13 replies \ @grayruby 30 Nov

Great analysis. I think we are going to talk about this on the pod. This is setting up nicely for my darkhorse pick the Bucks to make a run at the cup.

21 sats \ 12 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Nov

I need to work through some of these scenarios, but I like the Magics chances against the Knicks and it looks like the Bucks could pummel Detroit enough for the Celtics to get in.

34 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 30 Nov

So now you are on team Bucks. I had them last in my power rankings and that inspired them to get back on track. My Giannis bet looks better every day.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Nov

I don't know if thinking a team can beat up on Detroit makes me on their team.

Also, I'm just trying to give the dying man some false hope. Have some tact.

8 sats \ 9 replies \ @gnilma OP 30 Nov

I think best scenario for me in terms of number of picks is Magic beats Knicks and Celtics makes wildcard in East; then in west, Spurs beat Suns, OKC beat Jazz, and Grizzlies beat Mavs, so Spurs wins group and OKC is West wildcard. I think that nets me the most number of picks in knockoff stage.

40 sats \ 8 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Nov

I don't have everyone's remaining picks in front of me, but I'm guessing everyone who can will be taking the Cavs on Tuesday.

15 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 30 Nov

Nah. I am going to Yolo a pick since I can't use a rebuy in the playoffs.

It does kind of suck for me that I have used some of these surprise teams as I thought there was no way they would be competitors. But I still have a decent slate of teams to choose from.

40 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Nov

In that case, I recommend the Wizards. It'll be you against us, which means either you use your rebuy or the rest of us do.

25 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 30 Nov

That might be a bridge too far. I was thinking the Raptors or Hornets. Teams that are risky picks but might actually have a chance to win.

61 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 Nov

What about the title contending 76ers? If you can believe it, they're already eliminated too.

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14 sats \ 7 replies \ @realBitcoinDog 30 Nov

Wow this is really complicated. I’m grateful for the analysis!

@Undisciplined if I run out of picks to choose from by playoffs do I lose by default?

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Dec

Well, you forfeit the round. If anyone else still has picks, then you'd lose. If everyone else runs out of picks, then we go to tie-breakers (which I would have to look up).

12 sats \ 5 replies \ @realBitcoinDog 1 Dec

Oh snap!!

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Dec

Yeah, you'll probably want to map out your bracket and do some strategery.

37 sats \ 3 replies \ @realBitcoinDog 1 Dec

These are my picks so far. What hope do I have?

Magic Cavs Mavs Warriors Bulls Heat

18 sats \ 0 replies \ @gnilma OP 1 Dec

Looks like you're in good shape. From your list, only the Warriors are sure to advance to the knockoff stage, with Magic and Mavs having the possibility of advancing. Things will clear up much more after Tuesday and you will know for sure how many teams are still available for you to pick.

31 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 1 Dec

Out of the teams @gnilma expects to make it, you still have Knicks, Bucks, Hawks, Rockets, and Thunder. There are only three rounds, so that might be plenty,

I also think there's a decent chance the Celtics make it in.

13 sats \ 0 replies \ @realBitcoinDog 1 Dec

Excellent

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Carresan 30 Nov

I am surprised with Cavs performance too, though it may not be bad looking ahead of Tuesday.

15 sats \ 0 replies \ @gnilma OP 30 Nov

It's as if the Hawks are their kryptonite.