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Astral Codex is someone I've been reading for years, and his pieces always make me think, even when I don't agree with him. This is a fascinating dive into the idea of elites in any area -- medicine, science, journalism -- but way more nuanced than some of the pieces I've encountered on the same theme.
Here's a chunk from the middle that stood out in particular:
Veteran readers of this blog know I have many complaints about journalists. But I still have basic trust that something in the New York Times’ non-opinion pages is 99% likely to be factually true - probably spun a bit, probably selected from the space of possible news articles because it supports the Times’ agenda, but factually true - in a way I don’t believe for random YouTubers. And I expect the spin to have some level of elegance. They (usually) won’t give a per capita statistic and claim it’s absolute numbers, or mix up stocks and flows, or commit post hoc ergo propter hoc. Relatedly, the journalists I know are obsessed with the opinions of other journalists, which they monitor and gossip about constantly.
In comparison, alternative media is really hit or miss. A few alternative sources are great, usually due to the personal virtue of the people involved. But the average person isn’t smart enough to figure out on their own which ones those are. And the rest are garbage. Also, and it pains me to say this, many of the really good alternative sources are run by former journalists or people with journalistic experience (eg Matt Yglesias - or Jesse Singal, who recently wrote a good piece about exactly this problem). You can resign from a priesthood. You can even be excommunicated. But you’ll always be a defrocked priest; you can never go back to being a normie.
The lies of priests are so limited and subtle, compared to the lies of non-priests, that it might seem like following priests is still an obviously superior option. I think this is true in every way but one: because the priesthoods move as one and fall victim to ideological fads, the lies of priests are correlated. If you follow every priestly pronouncement, eventually you will end up manipulated into going to some specific place you really didn’t want to be. Meanwhile, if you follow the lies of non-priests, you’ll probably end up trying to cure your liver disease with ground-up hippopotamus eyes, but whatever disasters this causes will push in random directions and cause random chaos, rather than slowly turning your society into a totalitarian hellhole. Even though on every specific point you’ll probably do better trusting the priests, you may find that a blanket policy of always trusting the priests is not in your interests. And unless you’re a priest yourself, you probably can’t distinguish good priestly pronouncements from bad ones.
The two sentences at the end of the second paragraph are fantastic by themselves.
I recommend reading the whole piece, since it's about econ and medicine and other stuff alongside journalism. And it's just plain well-written.
1030 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury 13h
Okay, read this, so here's a slightly better take: the article is brilliant and thoughtful and probing, as per usual.
And highly relevant to btc. It's worth asking why basically zero economists from the total population, and a negligible number from the populations you would most strongly suspect of "getting it" (e.g., the ones affiliated w/ mises.org) actually get bitcoin. The priesthood explanation offers a blanket explanation, but is there another one?
I agree w/ SA that priesthoods are generally good. Having been deep in the "alternate health" world I can confirm that it is mostly idiocy, and the arguments are mostly terrible, and the data confirms this when you dig into it with any sophistication. But also these views make surface-level sense, and in fact they can often be surface-level correct -- the issue is that real life is not at the surface level. You start adding in all of the special cases and weird circumstances and complexities of how people inhabit their environments and pretty soon your elegant populist theory is a jumbled mess.
So I worry constantly whether I am being really really dumb wrt btc. But I also have done the work and slogged through the mud and shit, so at least I know, in grotesque detail, why I think it's a Big Deal. I know why I believe what I believe at a deep level. But I still worry that no priesthood, even a rogue faction, champions it. Almost nobody's talking about it the right way.
As Feynman said, the first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. Which is concerning.
Anyway, thanks for posting the article, very worth reading and sitting with.
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That's a great point about the priesthood and btc, and one that I admit always (subconsciously, at least) lives at the back of my mind, though I hadn't contextualized it like this.
WRT to priesthoods and special cases, I think of the saying in medicine that "when you hear hoofbeats, you think horses and not zebras." It's valid and right more often, but if you've got a zebra of a health condition, that's when things go awry, both for your health and often your relationship with the priesthood.
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Scott Alexander is a god.
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I tried Astral Codex years ago ... too high brow, even the comments are hard to read
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I find that he'll mix highbrow and accessible stuff (this one felt more accessible than his statistical deep dives), but as with most non-SN places, I definitely don't bother with the comments.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 4h
I didn't mean to say the comments were low quality, in fact, quite the opposite. Almost too high quality, beyond my low brow, blue collar IQ
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Oh, I think some of them are very low quality, even if they're well-written. There are a lot of folks in the comments there who are basically trying to become the Next Astral Codex, and write long essays that say little or nothing.
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Great extract. Hope to get back to this with a bit more time to read the whole piece.
I haven't read Scott in a while, thanks for sharing him here...
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