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🚨 Will Ukraine hold an election in 2025? 🗳️
131 sats \ 7 comments \ @mega_dreamer 21 Feb Politics_And_Law
🚨 Will Ukraine hold an election in 2025? 🗳️
Track this important market and make your prediction on whether Ukraine will hold a national election this year!
👉 Bet on the future of Ukraine’s political landscape: Ukraine Election in 2025
#UkraineElection #PredictionMarkets #PoliticalForecast
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136 sats \ 4 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 21 Feb
It would be interesting to take advantage of these posts and do a survey here on SN!
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100 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 21 Feb
Polls have only an extensive margin. Prediction markets have both extensive and intensive margins.
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30 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 21 Feb
Here's little ChatGPT comparison:
Polls vs. Prediction Markets
• Polls measure opinions at a moment in time, often influenced by bias, sampling errors, and respondents’ honesty. • Prediction Markets aggregate real-money bets, leveraging incentives to reward accurate forecasts and filter out noise.
Key Difference: Polls reflect sentiment; prediction markets reflect informed expectations.
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 21 Feb
Polls give equal weight to experts and dolts, while offering no incentive to try to be accurate.
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39 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 21 Feb
Yup! "No incentive" == "No reason to be right"
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @CruncherDefi 21 Feb
Is that even a question? Elections are not held while at war and are postpones till the war is over. At least that the case with law in most democratic countries so Ukraine probably also qualifies.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 21 Feb
Yes sir, that's a real question. If your answer it right, you get to make few sats. Why not put your sats where you mouth is :)
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