Getting the Recession Out of the Way? \ stacker news ~econ

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784 sats \ 12 comments \ @antic 18h econ

Every presidential election before this one has resulted in 12-18 months (ish) of market uptrend (as politicians spend all the money they promised to spend and inflate the markets), followed by a big market correction or recession 12-18 months into their term.

But this time, it seems like we might have a reverse of that trend, start out with a recession, and get a market boom later once rates go down and stimulus measures go into effect.

VTI is currently down 17% from the ATH. Falling a full 27% would put it back at the prior high when the money printers stopped in Nov 2021, which would be a poetic time to boot up the printers again and reverse course (around October).

This inverts my previous prediction that the recession would start around Oct, completely swapping the boom and the bust.

What do you think?

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50 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 18h

I can't say this is what happened, but I was saying all throughout the last presidential campaign that the establishment seemed perfectly content to let the economy fall out from under Trump once he took office.

39 sats \ 5 replies \ @kepford 17h

Yep, for a while I thought they were actually throwing the election. I mean, Harris is so bad maybe that was what happened.

65 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 17h

"They" sort of did throw the election. As in, the "real" Democrat challengers opted to sit it out.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @SimpleStacker 15h

The optics of taking the nomination from a woman of color and the sitting VP were too bad for anyone to seriously considering challenging Kamala

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 14h

Yeah, for sure but still. Biden running was the issue. If he had bowed out there could have been an open primary. Whatever, who knows what these snakes are really up to.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 15h

I think they would have if they thought they had a real chance at winning. All the big shots in the party were supposedly trying to make that happen.

34 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 17h

True. Biden even running was really what made me believe that was happening. If they wanted to win he should have stepped aside and allowed their process to be completed. If I were a democrat THAT is what I would be complaining about. They blew it really.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 15h

If you're gonna trigger a recession, better to do it in year 1 than year 4.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 11h

I havent heard of VTI in so long! I remember when vanguard was ahead of their game because they didnt charge a fee to buy their etfs. Now everyone does it.