An important point of consideration, I'd reckon, that whatever might trigger a recession is a far cry from the cumulative effect of the thousands of wounds inflicted by artificial credit expansion in the years running up to it.
Lots of people will blame the individual choices of singular officials - who should be held to account for their actions, no doubt - while neglecting the acknowledge the longstanding cause incarnate in the Fed's banking system.
But it is much easier to fancy tyranny in the form of a grouchy old wall-streeter that powders himself with cheetos apparently - and I get that.
There is only one thing that can cause the kind of all-encompassing economic slowdown experienced across the entire economy that defines a recession: artificial credit expansion.
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And while the next recession may very well be triggered by the market’s reaction to Trump’s tariffs, it will be caused by the aggressive credit expansion that took place in the years after the 2008 recession and, especially, during the covid pandemic.
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That distinction between the trigger and cause is important because, as nasty as those market crashes, tariffs, and speculative bubbles were, they would not have brought about an entire recession without all the malinvestment created by artificial credit expansion. It’s like the difference between tossing a lit match on an empty pad of damp concrete versus a windblown field of dry, flammable grass.