A lot of money has entered the market. But profits are falling, fear still persists and tariff risk remains on the table.
This recovery may be more in investors' heads than in fundamentals.
- S&P 500 companies are cutting earnings projections at the worst pace since the pandemic
The number of negative reviews far outnumbered the positive ones.
It is the weakest data since 2020.
While prices are trying to recover, CEOs themselves are saying results will get worse.
- Even with this scenario, individual investors continue to buy — and a lot
In April, net purchases of S&P 500 stocks by individuals totaled more than $12 billion, according to Goldman Sachs.
Since the February top, retail investors have been net buyers almost every day.
It is not institutional flow.
It is the strength of retail trying to support the market by force.
- This is being celebrated as retail coming of age — but context still matters
The dominant narrative is that “retail has learned to buy in the dips.”
But it's one thing to buy based on fundamentals.
Another is to keep buying as earnings are revised downward and risk rises.
American investors have become accustomed to making money by buying on the dip since the pandemic, but this behavior may be confusing discipline with denial.
- The Nasdaq attempts a recovery — but still without real strength
After weeks of decline, the Nasdaq managed to turn upward in April.
However, this recovery was built without fundamental support and without a strong entry of institutional investors.
It is more a reflection of a technical rebound than a structural change in the market.
- Fear has subsided — but it still dominates the environment
The Fear & Greed Index rose to 37 — out of “extreme fear,” but still far from the neutral zone.
In other words: the feeling improved, but it didn't change.
The market is less panicked — but still far from confident.
- The trade war remains extremely unpredictable
Trump has already warned: he does not intend to renew the tariff truce if there are no concessions.
It's been 16 days of the 90-day pause, and the rhetoric has heated up again.
This threat reignites concerns about global supply chains, corporate margins and market stability.
- Foreigners are quietly exiting American debt
The share of U.S. government bonds held by foreign investors has fallen to its lowest level since the 1990s.
It's a gradual but consistent move — one that weakens demand for Treasuries and increases pressure on U.S. debt financing.
- The market reacts even to the names that appear in the headlines
When Scott Bessent — Soros' former CIO and current Treasury Secretary — speaks, the S&P tends to rise.
But when the spotlight is on Peter Navarro (architect of the trade war) or Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce and hawkish voice), the index takes a hit.
It's not noise. It's a clear risk reading:
the combat profile clearly influences the future outlook.
- Amid this uncertainty, Bitcoin has started to attract institutional capital again
US Bitcoin ETFs received $381 million in a single day — the largest inflow since January.
It’s not just crypto enthusiasm. It’s a direct reflection of the current landscape:
•Falling profits
•Risk of trade war
•Fear still high
•US fiscal policy increasingly fragile
In this environment, Bitcoin is once again seen as an alternative to the instability of traditional markets.
It's not optimism; it's a silent escape in search of protection.
- The real picture of the American market today is:
• Falling profits
• Individual supporting the market
• Institutional still out of the game
• Technical recovery, without solid basis
• Feeling still in fear territory
• High trade tensions
• Silent exit of foreigners from Treasuries
• High sensitivity to policy names
• Bitcoin calling in the middle of the confusion
The market moves.
But the base doesn't come with it.
And when the narrative runs too far ahead of reality — the adjustment can be unpleasant.