Is the 4 year cycle over? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

pull down to refresh

268 sats \ 10 comments \ @thehumblestacker 14h bitcoin

Most people believe the 4 year cycle is still there but softening, not dead yet.

More cautious people think it’s breaking down slowly as Bitcoin matures.

Supercycle believers think we might see one final insane run before cycles disappear completely, but that's a minority view right now.

Everyone agrees that Bitcoin isn't behaving exactly like it did in the past anymore. There's more complex factors (ETFs, macro environment, regulations, etc.) now.

What are your thoughts? Is Bitcoin boring now?

view all related items

52 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 8h

We're still too far out of equilibrium for boring.

Whatever factors were driving the 4-year cycles were always going to get priced in. I was surprised they hadn't been already.

There are always new factors though, so that doesn't mean there won't be crazy moves up, down, and sideways. Plus, the 9x inflation response will likely hold until adoption becomes significant.

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @thehumblestacker OP 8h

Agreed

Bitcoin’s still young in the grand scheme, and true equilibrium is a long way off.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @teemupleb 8h

Previously the 4-year halving cycles often coincided with business cycles.

Now it seems that Fed could start easing in 2026 which could possibly mean the end of the 4-year halving cycle.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @thehumblestacker OP 8h

Could this be the "Big Print" Lepard wrote about?

15 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 9h

I think the 4 year cycle is dead. Now it seems to be in a step like pattern. Its like a step up then plateau for around 6 months, then step up and plateau again.

That's what I'm seeing anyway.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Catcher 13h

I think we entered the era of superboringcycle where bitcoin price will just slowly go up and all the people who were buying it to get rich quick will get bored and leave.