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Will you be happy if Bitcoin rises upon the decline of the USD?
0 sats \ 6 comments \ @Solomonsatoshi 23h bitcoin
If the collapse of the USD causes Bitcoin to rise in value will Libertarians be happy? Even if the fall of the dollar results in a very different world where it is most likely China has much more influence and power where trade and finance and international protocols and law are increasingly dominated by China. Because the Bitcoin ecosystem is not even comparable to the Chinese economy. The Bitcoin economy is almost exclusively that of a speculative asset- Bitcoin is not in reality a MoE with any depth or broad adoption. All Bitcoin and 'crypto' would be in the event of the collapse of US hegemony, is primarily vehicles for wealth preservation outside of an increasingly Chinese dominated global economy. Thoughts?
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35 sats \ 5 replies \ @028559d218 19h
If the collapse of the USD causes Bitcoin to rise in value will Libertarians be happy?
i don't think the dollar will collapse. just be less valuable
Even if the fall of the dollar results in a very different world where it is most likely China has much more influence and power where trade and finance and international protocols and law are increasingly dominated by China.
china doesn't dominate any of these things today. maybe trade ok... but the rest no. they are catching up for sure but they are not there yet.
Because the Bitcoin ecosystem is not even comparable to the Chinese economy.
it's not comparable to any economy. bitcoin is a relative baby at ~ 16 years old.
The Bitcoin economy is almost exclusively that of a speculative asset- Bitcoin is not in reality a MoE with any depth or broad adoption.
not it's not today. but it could be in the future. i bought fries with lightning and it worked just fine.
All Bitcoin and 'crypto' would be in the event of the collapse of US hegemony, is primarily vehicles for wealth preservation outside of an increasingly Chinese dominated global economy.
i still think bitcoin has a shot to be the global, digital neutral settlement layer. not because it's perfect... but because there really aren't any neutral competitors
my thoughts
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21 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 19h
IMO the USD is highly vulnerable to collapse because the entire US govt power projection apparatus (primarily the military) is reliant upon the seigniorage and exorbitant privilege that USD reserve currency status has enabled.
China is advancing if not leading in most technological areas and definitely investing in and building more global physical infrastructure and military capability. The US still has a definite lead in traditional legacy military capability but China is developing in areas where new technology is changing the entire nature of war and power projection.
China must increase its influence over and control of international protocols and institutions- it is doing this with projects like mBridge, the China Development Bank, its CBDC, CIPS and via BRICS. China already enables trade payments for Iran Russia and N.Korea and probably others, completely outside of the control and data collection reach of the IMF/World Bank, SWIFT and BIS US imperialist legacy structures. Bitcoin is not used hardly at all as a means of exchange- it is either outright banned, or slyly obstructed to the point of being effectively banned as it is in the 'liberal' western democracies via tax obligations requiring absurd and practically impossible transactions recording and assessment for all BTC MoE use.
I cannot see Bitcoin being adopted by governments except in cases where those governments gain some advantage and this can be the case in only a few unique situations such as El Salvador where Bitcoin can attract both attention and investment that would otherwise not have been easy to achieve. For the vast majority of nation states Bitcoin adoption (for MoE) takes away far more from the government than it adds. I am of course taking a critical and you might say pessimist view, but it does seem to be the trend as the almost complete lack of adoption for MoE anywhere, even in El Salvador suggests people will not choose monetary liberty even when a government allows it and Bitcoin offers that option.
I hope MoE adoption can and will happen, but fear not enough people want to be free. We shall see!
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28 sats \ 3 replies \ @028559d218 19h
Bitcoin is not used hardly at all as a means of exchange- it is either outright banned, or slyly obstructed to the point of being effectively banned as it is in the 'liberal' western democracies via tax obligations requiring absurd and practically impossible transactions recording and assessment for all BTC MoE use.
Fries go crunch.
For the vast majority of nation states Bitcoin adoption (for MoE) takes away far more from the government than it adds.
The bond market would beg to differ.
I am of course taking a critical and you might say pessimist view, but it does seem to be the trend as the almost complete lack of adoption for MoE anywhere, even in El Salvador suggests people will not choose monetary liberty even when a government allows it and Bitcoin offers that option.
I, personally, would prefer my money to die more slowly (to inflation) than more quickly. That's why I choose Bitcoin. Simple right?
I hope MoE adoption can and will happen, but fear not enough people want to be free. We shall see!
Like I said, fries go crunch! ;) We shall see :)
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 19h
Bitcoin has performed incredibly well as a SoV/speculative commodity- but my fear is that this is due in large part to a process of capture and control orchestrated by the bankers- they have increasingly commodified our P2P MoE, taken custody of it, frozen a growing portion of issuance from any possible use as a p2p MoE and tracked and traced the vast majority of BTC that is still held in citizens private custody.
By 'The bond market begs to differ' do you mean Bitcoins exceptional SoV performance has provided an alternative to nation states (eg El Salvador has doubled the USD denominated value of its BTC Treasury) or something else?
I was hoping El Salvador might start to issue BTC bonds and demonstrate a viable alternative to endless dependence upon the IMFs fiat debt slavery,. but this does not yet seem to have developed.
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35 sats \ 1 reply \ @028559d218 19h
Bitcoin has performed incredibly well as a SoV/speculative commodity- but my fear is that this is due in large part to a process of capture and control orchestrated by the bankers- they have increasingly commodified our P2P MoE, taken custody of it, frozen a growing portion of issuance from any possible use as a p2p MoE and tracked and traced the vast majority of BTC that is still held in citizens private custody.
if citizens want to use it for moe and use it privately... they can. that is the important thing.
By 'The bond market begs to differ' do you mean Bitcoins exceptional SoV performance has provided an alternative to nation states (eg El Salvador has doubled the USD denominated value of its BTC Treasury) or something else?
yes nation states. but no not El Salvador, the united states. The united states adopting bitcoin as an alternative to the dying dollar (which is dying, slowly of course but it is)
I was hoping El Salvador might start to issue BTC bonds and demonstrate a viable alternative to endless dependence upon the IMFs fiat debt slavery,. but this does not yet seem to have developed.
Bitcoin is only 16 years old. it is not even an adult yet and can barely drive a car
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 17h
if citizens want to use it for moe and use it privately... they can. that is the important thing.
In practice the tax obligations and implications make lawful MoE use of Bitcoin/LN for everyday payments effectively impractical.
Does anyone zapping on here comply with the absurd compliance implications of those zaps? Unless they are from El Salvador I very much doubt it.
'The united states adopting bitcoin as an alternative to the dying dollar (which is dying, slowly of course but it is)'
I see what you mean in terms of US adopting Bitcoin as an investment asset/speculative commodity - as a hedge against the decline of the USD - and yes in that sense Bitcoin adoption is advancing (as my post argues and with the possible consequences as well) - but with that US adoption of BTC as an alternative to traditional fiat bonds, I also suggest MoE use is at risk of getting sacrificed along the way.
'Bitcoin is only 16 years old.'
True!- amazing really- its still early days, but the changes Bitcoin has made already are incredible. I just hope we continue to make such incredible progress and do not get captured and controlled by the bankers/governments.
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