Which side are you betting on?
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244 sats \ 15 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 May
@mega_dreamer, was this on your radar?
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 30 May
đ
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34 sats \ 13 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 May
Yes - actually we already run a play money market on this and own bunch of YES shares at 1%. Hoping that the NO holders will get impatient we make money ;)
https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?r=cHJlZHl4X21hcmtldHM
Do you want this market to be listed on Predyx?
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0 sats \ 12 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 May
What would the resolution criteria have to be?
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45 sats \ 11 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 May
Resolution Criteria: Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?
This market will resolve to âYesâ if, by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, there is an event widely and credibly recognized as the literal Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
Such recognition must be confirmed by a consensus of credible global news outlets and at least one major world government or international authority. The event must involve a public, global acknowledgment that the individual is in fact Jesus Christ and that his return fulfills the prophetic criteria associated with the Second Coming as traditionally understood in Christian eschatology.
If no such confirmation exists by the stated time, the market will resolve to âNoâ.
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101 sats \ 9 replies \ @Undisciplined 30 May
So, this is only for those acknowledging a first coming, then?
What if only a minority of Christians recognize the second coming, but a majority of non-Christians recognize it as the first coming?
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59 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 May
I think first coming and second coming is just a literal thing. We can add either first coming or second coming in the criteria.
Whats most important is: Such recognition must be confirmed by a consensus of credible global news outlets and at least one major world government or international authority.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @metadavid OP 30 May
My understanding is the outcome depends on whether UMA token holders agree that Jesus actually returned?
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32 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 31 May
That YES hitting is about as likely of hitting as @Undisciplinedâs Leafs Stanley Cup YES shares were.
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40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 31 May
Sounds like you want a âWhich happens firstâŚ?â market.
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27 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 31 May
Oh man thatâs a tough call. Haha
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Riberet 31 May
Jesus Christ is already here!
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 31 May
But what's the potential return on this strategy? I don't imagine it'd be that much better than just buying NO and waiting for a year
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @SwapMarket 30 May
It is a deep out of the money option, so the value of Yes will decay to 0 the closer we are to the year end. Those bidding Yes are more likely to chicken out and sell while it is above their purchase price.
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