@Shillohpopi_
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The Shift in American Politics: 20 Key Issues to Watch in 2024
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Your question seems to be more about statistical analysis and error calculation rather than the specifics of your Independent, Democrat, or Republican party affiliations.
In statistical terms, a large underestimate and an equally large overestimate can cancel each other out when calculating the mean or average error. This is because they have opposite signs, one positive and one negative. However, when considering absolute errors, the two large errors wouldn't cancel out.
Error Calculation Methods
  • Mean Absolute Error (MAE) considers the average magnitude of errors, without regard to direction. This method would sum the absolute values of errors ¹.
  • Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) consider both the magnitude and direction of errors. These methods would treat underestimates and overestimates differently.
Why Average Errors Cancel Out
When calculating the average error, underestimates (negative errors) and overestimates (positive errors) can balance each other. For instance:
True value: 10
Estimate 1: 8 (underestimate, error = -2) Estimate 2: 12 (overestimate, error = +2) Average error: (-2 + 2) / 2 = 0
In this case, the average error is zero, suggesting no overall bias.
However, using absolute errors or squared errors would provide a different picture:
Mean Absolute Error: (|-2| + |2|) / 2 = 2 Mean Squared Error: ((-2)^2 + 2^2) / 2 = 4
These metrics highlight the magnitude of errors rather than cancelling them out
GENESIS