“This time is different”

This was published in 2019.

I don’t think it will be as easy as you assume. In my opinion, the future of Bitcoin will be driven by large institutional players, with transactions occurring primarily between corporations, family firms, and nation-states. The average person may be lucky to experience an on-chain transaction even once in their lifetime.

Above the base layer, networks like Lightning will be deeply interconnected with Fedimints. These Fedimints will function as community hubs and brokers, facilitating transactions between businesses (e.g., local pubs, retailers) and the public. If you want to make a purchase using 'Bitcoin,' you’ll likely need to join a Fedimint that has an established relationship with the business.

Over time, these Fedimints will be dominated by large entities capable of acting as financial intermediaries. I expect major players such as StrategyB, JPMorgan, Visa, and others to operate some of these large-scale Fedimints. These larger mints will, in turn, maintain relationships with smaller, community-driven mints (e.g., HOAs, clubs, and niche organizations), creating a layered network of trust and liquidity.

I suspect that we will see a bifurcation between KYC and non-KYC assets. For example, Bitcoin that can be traced and is custodied between KYC organizations (e.g., hosted wallets, exchanges, Lightning nodes) versus 'outsiders.' One of the few Achilles' heels of Bitcoin is fungibility, not all UTXOs are created equal, and their lineage can be traced.

A similar dynamic exists in gold markets, where gold held in COMEX and LBMA vaults, or 'registered' gold, is distinguished from other forms. Once gold leaves these systems, it must go through a lengthy process to be reintroduced, making it difficult to move in and out freely.

This division in Bitcoin could lead to differing liquidity, usability, and market perceptions between the two categories.

I wouldn’t recommend moving in the direction you’re likely thinking. A single lightening node has no real built in concept of separation of power. Whoever holds the wallet keys has total control. Channels must be managed by an administrator who has total control over opening or closing channels.

In a group setting you might consider setting up an Alby Hub. That has a built in ability to creat “sub accounts”. It also removes the need for channel management and has a lot of built in integrations for nostr authentication etc. It’s also very easy to set up.

Beyond that i’d explore creating a Fedi Mint with a lightening instances. That would give you a governance structure for the bitcoin/feditokens while allowing you to use the lightning node for processing liquidity in or out of the mint.

$.02

Great speech. It’s liberation day for every race, color and creed.

Switched 20 years ago. It was a great decision. I don’t miss Windows even a little bit. The only downside at the time was everything was in Office. But now with the online availability of Office even that minor inconvenience is gone. Games might still be an issue for some but, a lot of it can run on Linux (Steam). All around better for privacy, security and usability.

Germany is in a bad spot but all of the EU and UK are no better. They’ve had years of bad energy policy and a disastrous war. Their markets are no longer competitive with the rest of the world. Simply put, their products are too expensive. VW is moving production out of Germany and shutting factories. They will need to dramatically devalue the euro to compensate. However, the US also must devalue the dollar to make the debt nominally payable. A fight that the US will win. Next up is capital controls in the EU to stop the capital flight.

What else would you expect from a Sith? I've told him before, Bitcoin takes all types.

Existence itself is a cosmic joke. Turtles all the way down is a perfectly valid structure for the universe. There is no requirement for a foundation beyond the game itself.

Everyone knows it’s turtles all the way down.

18 year olds are prone to making poor choices. Place a 10 year time lock on the gift.

Bitcoiners understand the primary purpose of the CB is:

Printer go Brrrrr.....

This behavior is not surprising when viewed through the lens of Austrian theory. The disutility of labor has been a known phenomena in Austrian economists for decades.

When individuals receive financial support without the need for work, they choose to minimize their labor participation. Recipients of UBI worked less and experienced longer unemployment durations. When basic needs are met through cash transfers, the disutility of labor outweighs its benefits. This is a key tenet of Austrian economics: if the costs of working—whether in time, effort, or stress—exceed the perceived rewards, individuals will opt for leisure.

Thanks for that! I hadn't seen that little gem.

Thanks for sharing. This is quite nice. Would you share some details about how you accomplished this? e.g. software, configs etc?

It’s the modern version of feudalism. There is an aristocracy who own most of the assets. The rest are serfs who pay rent. But without the noblesse oblige. You are a deplorable so who cares if you suffer.

and make no mistake the crises is coming. This is just one more data point.

There have been great thinkers in economics including giants like Mises and Rothbard. Unfortunately, modern economics is bought and paid for by fiat money. Bitcoin fixes this too.

Bitcoin will be light to guide Africa into a new dawn. Wakanda will be more than a dream.

The banks have become the police.