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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 23m \ parent \ on: President Trump officially deploys 500 marines to Los Angeles. news
Its a good point, but in that case the Feds need to arrest to local politicians. Clear case of negligent homicide / criminal negligence.
Not a fan of this....I 100% think law enforcement should arrest anyone rioting, but that could be handled by police.
Military is bad precedent (and likely illegal)
Coinbase isn't high impact, it's not the entire ecosystem.
2.2M coins being dumped on the market would crush price for a long long time. Probably almost all "crypto companies" would go bankrupt. Nearly all miners would go bankrupt....the knock on effects would be massive.
The biggest impact would be against the mentality of investors (all the ETFs except Fidelity use CB). Instantly losing 250B may push investment sentiment to "its just not worth it" mentality.
Such losses by general public would usher in a whole series of new draconian laws that may permanently impact banks ability to custody bitcoin and freeze bitcoin out of regulated economy.
Central banks would use it to say "told you so" and usher in CBDC's that had the "feature" that such hacks could be rolled back, frozen, etc.
There are any number of low-probability / high-impact events....grid going down, large custodian hacked (ie. coinbase), nuclear war, severe bug being exploited...etc...
The difference between those and QC is that some of those are hundreds of times more likely to happen than QC ever achieving anything. Yet, QC gets a disproportionate amount of media airtime....(thankfully, I guess).
Yes, and Saylors magic box doesn't just increase debt. Its a sea-saw. When NAV is >2 he issues shares.....when NAV is <2 he issues debt.
Last I checked his debt load was only about ~25% of his NAV, plus his debt is zero coupon and expires in 3-5 years. So in theory Bitcoin price could fall to $25K and stay there for the next 3-5 years before he had a problem.
If I had a magic box that you could invest in, and this magic box could increase the bitcoin-per-share regularly....why would the NAV of my magic box be 1:1?
Investors will invest with the expectation of what bitcoin-per-share will be over some future time horizon.
Not saying NAV should be 2:1 forever, but its basically investors front-running the expectation. Not much different than a >1 PE ratio conceptually....
Let me clarify to you and @thecommoner in case my short answer gave the wrong idea: I'm all for legalization. I dont think anyone has the right to forcibly stop someone from ingesting whatever they want....
There are some caveats of when people can ingest drugs (and to what degree): For instance, I think you would probably agree that it shouldn't be legal to drive blackout drunk? But we are not objecting to the act of ingesting the drug, rather its their inability to reasonably operate a dangerous device in public. It really has nothing to do with the drug....it should probably also be illegal to drive if physically blind or while sleeping, etc.
However the topic of legalization normally carries with it a sort of worst-case implication: Should it be legal for people to become addicted to drugs. For that I also think it should be legal, but well my point was simply: I think it should be legal but wouldn't define that as good strictly speaking. (Much in the same way I think it should be legal to chop your own hands off with an axe, but I wouldn't define that as good).
I'm going to offer my equally un-researched take: I doubt legalizing drugs is a "good" for society, but its probably less bad than making them illegal.
Overall, societies would most benefit from govts fixing the core problem of: Why do members of their society so badly want to escape reality? Ultimately I think it goes something like this:
Poor economic possibilities -> Lack of home ownership + family + kids -> Lack of meaning -> Desire to escape.
The interesting thing about BTC (bitcoin treasuries companies) is that they are the perfect play for zombie companies.
Usually its much cheaper to acquire some zombie penny stock than it is to go thru the regulatory hassles of getting listed in the first place.
It could probably even be crowd sourced pretty effectively.
- Get a hundred people together to put up 0.5BTC each
- Take a portion of the BTC and use it buy outstanding shares of zombie
- Once complete, deposit remaining BTC on balance sheet
- List new shares on market, since NAV exceeds price algos will scoop up new shares.
- Take funds and buy BTC
- Repeat
I'm actually surprised USDT hasn't started to domicile to the US yet and/or get listed as a public company.
Supposedly Cantor is their bank....so all their funds are already held by US custodian...so it should be pretty straight forward for them to at least create a Tether LLC somewhere and become a domestic company.
Also a 5x would increase earnings from 500M (assumed) to 2.5B which would be 10x earnings not 2x.
You're right. Still in a collapsing fiat system a PE of 25 is considered "normal".
Why won't the banks create their own stablecoins?
I'm sure some will try. The funny thing though is are traditional banks capitalized enough? They cant simply print money, they need actual funds to buy 1:1 Treasuries to back their virtual USD.
The most curious thing (and least talked about, IMO) about GENIUS act is we are moving back to full reserve banking.
I suspect the next shoe to drop is that Tether and USDC will compete for clients by giving them a share of their interest earnings (assuming they are earning ~4.5% on their treasuries).
Therefore, I think the way the game will shape up is USDC or Tether will sign "exclusives" with large retail banks and offer them say 2% for the customers they onboard. The retail banks, being broke, will go for the easy-no-work-free cash.....
The retail banks are basically turning into front-end websites and Tether/USDC will be the actual banks.
The gov couldn't even keep the copper standard in pennies, so they switched to zinc. They won't be able to keep the zinc standard either.....and eventually paper/ink itself will be a problem.
Why would they 10x
The GENIUS act, if/when it passes is going to give preference to US-based stablecoin operators (which is USDC).
Look I think Tether may 15x and USDC may only 5x....but the point is 2028 is not far away, and even at 5x Circles valuation would not be that bad (a 5x may result in a PE of 2 or so)
Most notably, the US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) released a forecast in April 2025 projecting that the stablecoin market could reach a $2 trillion market cap by 2028, up from approximately $234 billion at the time—a nearly 10x increase
Assuming Circle 10x from here (as well as Tether), then Circle would probably be undervalued....so its quite likely investors are just trying to frontrun.
Yep. Probably the most prosperous time of US was 1870-1913. I mean this was era that put USA on the map...of course that era we didn't have a central bank.
For example the gaming stuff where he was apparently using players to get him high rankings in games like Diablo 4.
I had no idea about the Ketamine stuff until yesterday when @bell_curve said it. But the connection between fake game ratings and drug abuse was one of the first thing I thought of....Its the type of thing a drug induced billionaire would think about while high and having delusions of grandeur (one of the effects of ketamine).
Steve Bannon said on war room Trump should seize space x lol
Yeah, one of the issues of relying on gov contracts is it becomes super easy for them to declare you "national security issue".
Contrary to the myth he only owns ~50% of Space X....and his shareholders put up most of the actual cash (he founded company but the amount of cash he put in is dwarfed by what his shareholders put in).
I'm sure his shareholders gave him a ring yesterday to try to calm him down.
I see that some lawyers / investors must've talked some sense into Musk (or the ketamine wore off) since he now has started tweeting that he and DJT should make peace and move forward.....
Whats the over/under on Musk appearing at DJTs side in the next week acting chummy?
a big bang inside a black hole.
(porno music starts)
I really love how 100% secular societies explanations for their origin get more and more fantastical and outlandish with each year. Maybe it also involved 14-dimension hyperstring theory?
Robert Reich weighed in on the situation, stating, "Elon Musk is a noob at government and hasn't yet read "The Blackmail Standard." Keeping the secret that Trump is on the Epstein's list could have greatly benefitted Musk, if he had a lower time preference. Spending your blackmail on a bump in the road or a bad political breakup, is a shakeout no one really recovers from."
haha....kidding aside: I sorta think the btc price dump yesterday was from panicked TSLA holders dumping their IBIT stock to pump up their electric golf cart company.....
I doubt things will ever get that far.
Musk only owns about ~50% of SpaceX, the rest is a myriad of other investors: Peter Thiel, Fidelity, Google, Sequoia Capital, a2z are the big ones...but lots of small ones.
Those shareholders will probably sue Musk and get him removed as CEO as his unhinged behavior is inimical against their interest. Its a pretty clear violation of fiduciary duty.
Someone probably needs to stage a drug intervention with him as its pretty clear he is "having an episode".