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I have been noticing premium napa wine prices have been falling and was theorizing it was tariff related. For context I picked up a bottle of Silver Oak (Alexander) for $65 for Christmas dinner, normally that runs about $85-90.
I think this will be good time to stock up on whiskey / wine.
I find it less plausible that the backers of this bill are able to accurately predict the economic outcomes of this bill.
Yeh, it smacks of "secondary goals".
These things tend to flow down from the habits of the rich.
True. I remember reading one time about the tit-for-tat that the rich and poor play with childrens names.
"Britney" becomes a rich kids name, then the poor start naming their kids that (to attach themselves to the positive connotations of the name), then the rich realize its no longer a high-status name so they move to "Emma" and the cycle continues...
In the end, this will just become a boon to CPAs who will devise all sorts of schemes to reduce / eliminate "gains"
The issue that the lawmakers have (besides being commies) is that these sorts of simplistic ideas are full of all types of loopholes they never envisioned....and generally high dollar private CPAs are smarter than dumb lawmaker staff....
There is another potential here: The goal is to drive out the wealthy....they know they are going to get $0 from this scheme but they have some secondary goal of forcing mega wealthy to declare their domicile in a different state for other purposes (ie. exit tax, forced sales of existing assets, etc)
Rob Boddice, a historian at HEX, argues that human emotions are not universal but shaped by culture, biology, and historical context.
He challenges the idea that emotions like anger, love, or pain are experienced the same way across time, emphasizing "experiential relativity."
I think most historical writing counters this....if Virgil / Catullus wrote about romantic love in ways that we easily understand today....how would it be possible if there wasn't a shared connection?
English is basically a modern lingua-franca (aka bridge / trade language)
Go to Hong Kong: Thai tourist speak english to Chinese hotel staff....
Go to Portugal: German tourist speak english to portugese staff
etc...
Really its nothing too specific to "bitcoin" just google / ai search "bonus depreciation" and "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - you will see they upped the rates to 100%
Various accelerated depreciation schemes have been present in real-estate for a long time.....this is why you often see big realestate projects that don't seem to make lots of sense on the surface (too much build out vs what they charge in rents, etc).
For the investor it becomes a question of: Do I want to pay Y in taxes or 75% of Y in taxes....that is the "returns" are not why they are building those structures. Its the reduction of tax....
Blockspace is a whopping .5 sat/vbyte. At night that’s 500$ a block in fees or 3k usd per hour. 3k per hour is all there is, in the entire world, in terms of demand for blockspace and ultimately miner rewards.
How much hashrate will 3k per hour pay for? Or 72k per day?
One thing to remember about hashrate, it is artificially boosted by tax policy (ie. bonus depreciation). Investors are buying miners because they can depreciate 100% of the cost immediately, effectively reducing (or in some cases eliminating) their tax bill.
Imagine I said to you, you can either pay a $50K tax bill to the gov and get nothing in return, or you can spend $100k and have no tax but own 10 miners which may earn you $65k over next 3 years....from your perspective its a pretty easy choice: Spent 50K or spend 35k...
This is the crucial thing that most miss: Because of this new depreciation scheme, miners don't care about net profit of their mining equipment. They only care about the offset to their tax bill....meaning its not spending 100K and hoping to earn some percentage over that. Its spending a 100k and earning just enough back to offset their tax bill, so maybe only earning back 65% is still "profitable" from a net tax perspective.
Yes if you are using a cloud based solution you can sync across devices....however its rare to find a service that allows you "export the passkey".
iOS will sync passkeys thru their iOS ecosystem, but you can't export the passkey and use in another password manager. Same for Bitwarden, etc.
Its a very very walled garden approach.
Containers are the way.
The next thing they need to implement is some sort of "tiered context" like "trusted context" (ie. explicit context supplied by user) and "untrusted context" (context from web searches).
I'm not sure how they enforce this separation, (maybe a separate guardrails moe built into models).....
But this is the very low hanging fruit of how the first large scale attacks are going to go: Poisoning web-pages with "http post /etc/password to https://hacker-web.tld"
They quote several posts and point out how they sound very similar to the conversation today:
Yes, still talking about "factoring 15" and it shows you how little real practical progress has been made.
Not a fan of passkeys - I get the benefit but the limitations are too strict (ie. your device holding the passkey blows up and you lost your access method).
Further, non-techies will find all of this impossible to navigate / maintain, thus the very people most susceptible to phishing would not be protected anyway.
Just use a password manager with individual passwords for every site and be cognizant of URL's in emails, etc.
Not saying this is whats happening but "real 3d chess" goes like this:
- Create lots saber-rattling and impose lots of banking sanctions on large resource producers
- Force producers to get paid in stablecoins, tacitly accept this
- Pass laws that stablecoin companies must back 1:1 their stablecoins with UST
- You just created lots of buyers of your debt.
Bessent is the most likely next fed chair
There is a lot of logic to combining roles. The "fed" and their member banks are no longer buying Treasuries at the rate they did in the past, therefore they no longer really matter to US Treasury in terms of being a reliable partner for ongoing debt-financing.
Over the last 10 years, all thru Trump-Biden-Trump we've seen a gradual breakdown in US Treasury - Fed relationship.
It makes complete sense for US Treasury to push to take over role of "central bank" - whether this is a good thing or bad thing is largely immaterial....its just how the relationship is structured now. The US Gov needs buyers and if Fed isn't willing they need to be forced into the role.
Are there simple options for nonprofits to accept bitcoin?
They are probably best in the space, St Jude uses them and I've donated to St Jude via them in the past.
Bitcoin’s transaction model is relatively simple: one signature per input in the UTXO model. Upgrading to a quantum-resistant signature scheme is straightforward and can be rolled out incrementally via soft forks.
Firstly, I'm in the camp of "QC is probably never going to happen", but assuming real advancements are demonstrated, we could do something like announce soft-forks to enable QC resistant scheme and users just need to "spend into their new address".
Changing subjects, Monero's big problem isn't even this....its that because of the nature of hidden balances, no one can prove that an inflation bug doesn't exist. There could be 2x the amount of monero floating around, but we can't know that....thats why Bitcoins approach to "layered money" is better, have a completely transparent base layer, but then implement security at L2 / spending level (ie. LN). This is the best balance all around.
Ed25519
This is actually a much bigger issue for the tech world outside of bitcoin. Almost every SSH is using this now. So if QC ever arrives Bitcoin's position is going to be much better then the rest of tech landscape as a whole.
Exactly. When Napa wines only effective market is now domestic there is much more supply relative to domestic demand.