The “deep roots” literature in economics seeks to explain the enduring nature of global inequality by tracing the economic destinies of nations to events that happened decades or centuries ago. From the coercive labor systems of colonial Latin America to the trust-eroding effects of Africa’s slave trade, the literature posits that historical events cast long shadows that shape present-day outcomes. However, this thesis falls apart under emprical scrutiny.
Botswana is an example of an African country whose success is due in large part to effective post-colonial policies.
Claims about the devastating impact of colonial institutions are frequently made in regard to Latin America, where institutions like the Mit’a and encomienda are blamed for cycles of poverty in indigenous communities. However, a detailed study by Leticia Abad and Noel Maurer tells a more complex story, which points to institutional dissipation rather than persistence.
Nowhere is the deep roots narrative more influential than in discussions of Africa’s slave trade. In a widely cited study, Nathan Nunn and Leonard Wantchekon argue that historical exposure to transatlantic slavery eroded social trust in Africa. They claim that fear of enslavement at the hands of one’s associates bred suspicion and undermined social cohesion—a legacy that supposedly endures to this day, thwarting economic development.
But the argument falters on both historical and empirical grounds. First, it mischaracterizes the nature of slave acquisition. As David Eltis and John Thornton argue, slave raiding was not the predominant method of enslavement. A substantial portion of slaves entered the trade through warfare, debt bondage or judicial punishment. According to Thornton, that over a third of slaves were prisoners of war. This undermines the trust theory: if enslavement occurred primarily through formal practices rather than random betrayals, why would it sow distrust? Parts of southern Europe, the Mediterranean and Asia have long histories of slavery, yet do not suffer from the trust-eroding effects attributed uniquely to Africa.
As Jean-Philippe Platteau and colleagues have shown using the Afrobarometer surveys, countries like Benin that were at the center of the slave trade do not exhibit consistently lower levels of trust than non-slave-trading countries. On some measures, Benin exhibits higher levels of trust. And when trust is disaggregated into its generalized and particularized forms (e.g., trust in strangers vs. trust in neighbors), the results remain decidedly mixed. Historical exposure to slavery does not seem to be a robust predictor of trust.
if enslavement occurred primarily through formal practices rather than random betrayals, why would it sow distrust? Parts of southern Europe, the Mediterranean and Asia have long histories of slavery, yet do not suffer from the trust-eroding effects attributed uniquely to Africa.
if trust was so deeply eroded, how were transcontinental slave trading networks maintained in the first place?
The most controversial study in the deep roots is the one by Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg, presenting evidence that genetic distance to the US is a major predictor of development. The argument is not that genes directly affect productivity, but rather that genetic distance proxies for cultural distance, which in turn hinders the diffusion of innovation. However, Douglas Campbell and Ju Pyun showed that once proper geographic controls are included (e.g., distance from the equator and a dummy for sub-Saharan Africa), Spolaore and Wacziarg’s result no longer reaches significance. The observed correlations, they argue, are better explained by climatic compatibility and ecological constraints.
The deep roots literature offers a compelling story: that the economic destinies of nations were determined by events dozens or even hundreds of years ago. But as the latest research makes clear, this narrative is at best incomplete and at worst simply wrong. From Peru to Singapore, we see that institutions can dissolve, recover and reform. The persistence framework compresses decades or centuries of institutional change into simple, path-dependent trajectories—ignoring political agency. While sometimes constrained by genes or geography, societies can and do remake themselves.