Dang it I knew I should've paid more attention in my macro classes

I largely share that view, but 1) Is there reason for it to be a semi-regular cycle? and 2) How small would the amplitude have to be for us to say there are not business cycles?

Undisciplined

econ

Are regular economic downturns/recessions "normal and inevitable"?

Scoresby

I think there's some sense in which cycles are inevitable. We're always gonna have periods of "overshooting", both to the upside and to the downside in terms of credit issuance, because it's really hard to know when the time to pull back is.  I'm not sure extremely *large* cycles are necessary, and I guess that depends on how fast the feedback mechanisms in the market operate. It's possible that cycles are being exacerbated by investors' expectations to be bailed out by the government when things go wrong.
