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162 sats \ 5 replies \ @SimpleStacker 13h \ on: U.S. isn’t at war with Iran, ‘we’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program, Politics_And_Law
Japan: "We're not at war with America, we're at war with America's navy."
We'll see where this heads. I'm not sure how much capacity Iran has to truly retaliate, as I don't think it has many friends in the region. I don't know if Russia is willing to come in and escalate when it already has its hands full in Ukraine--it also doesn't want to risk pulling Europe even further into its entanglements. China is the big wild card. Will it come out in support of Iran and if so, how? I'm not even sure how much escalation there will be in western countries in terms of terrorism... most of the terrorist attacks in western countries have been by Sunni muslims, I believe, and Iran is a Shia country.
As much as I hate to say it, because it would seem to justify warmongering, but the best possible outcome in terms of least bloodshed and chaos, would be that this is a western "big dick" moment and the Iranian regime is genuinely cowed into submission. I don't think that's gonna happen, but the alternatives feel way worse.
I left the same comment, before seeing yours.
I'm not sure how much capacity Iran has to truly retaliate
You're forgetting that they very strategically founded their country right in the middle of a bunch of American bases.
You're right about the best case scenario, but I don't think the Iranian regime can let this go unanswered, especially with Israel continuing their attacks.
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I was watching part of the OIC meeting yesterday just to gauge the sentiment - this was before the USAF mixed into this conflict. Erdogan was doing his best to push a narrative of "family", and that Netanyahu is the “biggest obstacle to regional peace”.
Not sure about the former; the latter is probably correct if you add
, right now
. I've lived in that region for a couple of years and there wasn't much unity. Everyone has a reason to dislike the other person that's different from them, and there's always a difference to be found.reply
Turkey has no allies
Everyone including Iran hates Turkey
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western "big dick" moment and the Iranian regime is genuinely cowed into submission.
Didn't expect that.
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Iran can close the Straits of Hormuz
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