pull down to refresh
42 sats \ 4 replies \ @denlillaapan OP 5h \ parent \ on: Personal Finance Musings: To Bitcoin or Not to Bitcoin, That is the Question econ
OK, here's something.
MSTR has derivative value off bitcoin -- not always symmetrical or in tandem, but broadly speaking MSTR's value stems from the bitcoin it holds.
STRK (the 8% dividend +convertible instrument) pays me 2% every quarter, while in the limit it is (=becomes) bitcoin. Given that Strategy mNAV doesn't blow out (to 2-3-4x), it'd only be a matter of time until whatever sum I hold in STRK turn into MSTR (...which, remember, is bitcoin)... but I'm paid every quarter for doing this.
Maybe there's some major flaw in this reasoning but it does seem to dampen my swings while not returning to tradfi/banks and staying mostly bitcoin.
Makes sense?
Makes sense?
No, but I'm confused whenever the No Arbitrage Condition is seemingly being violated.
If you think you understand it, then it's what you should do.
reply
Def not — nobody overcomes arbitrage and lives to tell the tale! — and not what I'm claiming.
I believe what I'm doing is financing Saylor in the mid-term — the one I struggle with — so that he carries the bitcoin risk and I get cash flow.
Ie he's insuring me against the displeasure of BTC vol in the short to medium term... And in the long run he pays me back with shares he prints for free that wall street (fingers crossed??) price at par with bitcoin.
I can get shafted if Strategy falls apart, or if mNAV increases such as the shares I get back when converted eventually constitute less bitcoin than right now.
Anyway, I'm just guessing over here. Spitting out ideas
reply
You follow this stuff a lot more closely than I do, but none of what you just said would make me more comfortable.
reply
I'll think it over. (Plus, spending next week with uni friend, total investment-banker tradfi bro; if there's an error he'll shoot it down... so I'll report back!)
reply