Neither trade wars, nor threats to blockade global shipping bottlenecks, nor even hot wars seem capable of jolting oil prices out of their catatonic slumber. Forget “Drill, baby, drill” – U.S. shale needs higher prices to justify capital expenditure.

Yes, the twelve-day conflict between Israel and Iran briefly pushed prices up by as much as 15%, but the rally quickly fizzled. Brent now wobbles well below the $67 per barrel mark. Dead calm, little motion. In the U.S., the rig count has dropped to just 432 – the lowest level since autumn 2021 and down 11% from last year. The message is loud and clear: prices are too low.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has announced an output increase and delivers now 411,000 barrels per day. At the same time, U.S. producers are shutting down rigs because prices no longer cover costs.

So what’s keeping prices this low? A sluggish global economy? A flood of supply? Derivatives speculation? Likely a mix of all three.

But one thing is certain: the weakening world economy, shrinking trade flows between the U.S. and China amid tariff tensions, and declining maritime traffic are increasingly mirrored in oil markets. The price tells the story.