The one Wall Street analyst with a sell rating on Nvidia

Nvidia, the center of the AI boom, is nearing a $4 trillion market cap, and most Wall Street analysts still think there’s room for more upside. Except one.

Jay Goldberg of Seaport Global Securities is not just the only analyst in the herd suggesting traders sell Nvidia, but has a price target of merely $100 — implying a roughly 35% downside to yesterday’s closing price. His thesis is predicated on a few key pillars:

Nvidia is one of the leading beneficiaries of the AI spending boom, but its prospects are well understood and largely priced into the stock.

Growing questions about how useful fAI actually is could lead to a slowing of budgets in 2026.

Nvidia systems are more complex than traditional data centers and face potential challenges throughout the supply chain to deploy.

Currently, Nvidia has a near monopoly position in the industry. But as Amazon and other tech giants build on efforts to make their own chips, Nvidia could lose key customers.

In the nearer term, cyclical issues, including production limitations for its much sought-after Blackwell line, could raise further concerns.

All that said, there are reasons most other analysts are pretty positive on this stock. While most aren’t as bullish as Loop Capital analysts, who have the highest price target on the Street, as our chart shows, the general consensus is that there’s plenty more upside in the AI trade.

The Takeaway

While the largest contributor to Nvidia’s bottom line is the one that gets the most press, let’s not forget that Nvidia made $3.8 billion from its gaming division alone last quarter, which propelled it to an earnings beat despite a loss of $8 billion in potential revenue due to the ban of H20 exports to China. As for the future, reports indicate the company is working on an AI chip tailor-made for the Chinese market, and international demand for sovereign AI, which Nvidia is happy to help with, keeps growing as well.