The Toronto Blue Jays have won 9 games in a row and vaulted themselves into a 3.5 game lead in the tough American League East division. They have been doing it with a mix of good pitching, great defense, timely hitting and smart fundamental baseball. Getting key contributions from both their top players and some of the more rotational guys. They are simply on fire right now and we all know that will not last but are they good enough to be a real contender? Can they possibly win the east and grab one of the first round byes? Or will they regress back into merely a solid, likely wildcard team?
Their current run differential would suggest they are playing way over their heads.
They have a 53-38 record with a +16 run differential. Their expected win/loss record is 47-44, which would suggest they have had a lot of luck. Comparatively, the second place Yankees have a record of 49-41 with a +95 run differential and an expected win/loss record of 54-36. This suggests the Yankees have been very unlucky and the Jays have been very lucky.
To further argue in favour of regression, if we were solely to base the standings on run differential and expected win/loss the Blue Jays would not only not be in first place, they would actually be in 4th place in the East and on the outside looking in of the wild card race (although very close). Good thing they play games on the field and not on the stat sheet.
While I do think the Jays are due for some regression, especially from the insane run they are on right now, I don't think they are going to crash and burn. What the run differential truthers are missing is the trend. The Blue Jays had a dismal April in terms of run differential. Their record wasn't terrible as their solid pitching kept them in games while the bats were ice cold. They went 14-16 over the first month or so with an extremely bad -32 run differential. In the 61 games since then they have had a run differential of +48. Not world beating but more inline with what a good team should be doing. The Yankees on the other hand did much of their run differential damage in the first month of season netting +52 over the first 30 games and +43 in the last 60, which is similar to the Blue Jays pace over that time.
Ultimately while I do expect the Jays to cool off, I also expect the trend of their run differential steadily improving to continue. So I would expect them to neither crash and burn nor run away with the division and we end up with a fun playoff race in the East and wildcard over the last 60 games of the season. I would also add their solid pitching, excellent defense and great fundamentals should continue to allow them to win more close games than they lose, so run differential might not matter that much anyways.
Sats for all,
GR