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Run Differential Be Damned
655 sats \ 10 comments \ @grayruby 8 Jul Stacker_Sports
The Toronto Blue Jays have won 9 games in a row and vaulted themselves into a 3.5 game lead in the tough American League East division. They have been doing it with a mix of good pitching, great defense, timely hitting and smart fundamental baseball. Getting key contributions from both their top players and some of the more rotational guys. They are simply on fire right now and we all know that will not last but are they good enough to be a real contender? Can they possibly win the east and grab one of the first round byes? Or will they regress back into merely a solid, likely wildcard team?
Their current run differential would suggest they are playing way over their heads.
They have a 53-38 record with a +16 run differential. Their expected win/loss record is 47-44, which would suggest they have had a lot of luck. Comparatively, the second place Yankees have a record of 49-41 with a +95 run differential and an expected win/loss record of 54-36. This suggests the Yankees have been very unlucky and the Jays have been very lucky.
To further argue in favour of regression, if we were solely to base the standings on run differential and expected win/loss the Blue Jays would not only not be in first place, they would actually be in 4th place in the East and on the outside looking in of the wild card race (although very close). Good thing they play games on the field and not on the stat sheet.
While I do think the Jays are due for some regression, especially from the insane run they are on right now, I don't think they are going to crash and burn. What the run differential truthers are missing is the trend. The Blue Jays had a dismal April in terms of run differential. Their record wasn't terrible as their solid pitching kept them in games while the bats were ice cold. They went 14-16 over the first month or so with an extremely bad -32 run differential. In the 61 games since then they have had a run differential of +48. Not world beating but more inline with what a good team should be doing. The Yankees on the other hand did much of their run differential damage in the first month of season netting +52 over the first 30 games and +43 in the last 60, which is similar to the Blue Jays pace over that time.
Ultimately while I do expect the Jays to cool off, I also expect the trend of their run differential steadily improving to continue. So I would expect them to neither crash and burn nor run away with the division and we end up with a fun playoff race in the East and wildcard over the last 60 games of the season. I would also add their solid pitching, excellent defense and great fundamentals should continue to allow them to win more close games than they lose, so run differential might not matter that much anyways.
Sats for all, GR
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85 sats \ 5 replies \ @Carresan 8 Jul
Statistics do help sometimes but I love when teams in different sports beat them. I wish the best for the Blue Jays. It was my first pick in the MLB pool!
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15 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby OP 8 Jul
Agreed. Stats are fun and are great for discussions but don't always tell the whole story. The games are played on the field.
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90 sats \ 3 replies \ @Carresan 8 Jul
In La Liga, Microsoft has added info about the chances of a player to score when they have the ball. Interestingly, it gives 5-10% chances of scoring every time they score a goal. So it is a bit useless as it does not give good info.
Perhaps , statistics over a long period of time might give better info and more reliable. In the last 15 years, they have become an important input of info for scouting and sports managers to take decisions about signing players.
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30 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby OP 8 Jul
Apple TV has added reach base probabilities to their MLB broadcast and it changes as an at bat goes so a batter might have a 30% chance of reaching base when he comes up but if the pitcher gets two strikes that might go down to 15% and conversely if there is 2 or 3 balls it might go up to 40%. It's kind of neat to see while the game is going on.
2-0 Chelsea.
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40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Carresan 8 Jul
2-0 Chelsea
They are completing a great year. On top of their roster, they have just signed the striker who scored the two goals today.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 8 Jul
Tomorrow will be interesting.
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40 sats \ 2 replies \ @Wumbo 8 Jul
I am not Statistician but I have never felt run differential is a great stat (Total RS - RA).
I would like to see average of each game run differential over the season.
Game 1: Won 10-4 Game 2: Won 3-2 Game 3: Lost 2-4
Game 1 Delta: 6 Game 2 Delta 1 Game 3 Delta -2
Average: 1.667 (5 runs / 3 Games)
I think (I could be mathematically mistaken) it would show better how close the team is winning games by.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby OP 8 Jul
I think it is useful but can be pretty messy. Especially the way teams give up on games now. The Dodgers lost 18-1 the other day and had position players pitching. Maybe it evens out over the course of the year and they win a game by 17 runs but maybe not and it takes two weeks to make up those -17 runs. I don't think the Dodgers are any less of a team because they punted on a game they knew they couldn't win.
I would like to see a version of run differential that throws out games over a certain spread. I want to know how well teams perform in 1-4 run games not how well they perform when losing or winning by 10. Last night is a prime example for the Blue Jays. They were ahead 8-1 against the White Sox and tried to use a guy who has never pitched in the majors before to finish the last 3 innings of the game. He gave up 3 runs. In that case I don't think the final score 8-4 really captured how dominant the Jays were.
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Wumbo 8 Jul
Especially the way teams give up on games now.
Exactly
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @kurszusz 10 Jul
"Their current run differential would suggest they are playing way over their heads."
There is a really significant difference between them!
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