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128 sats \ 2 replies \ @justin_shocknet 19h \ on: More Artificial than Intelligent, it is only getting worse - Mathjis Lagerberg AI
Mechanically speaking, LLM's are literally just auto-complete. They cannot reason, they cannot create new information, they can't even verify information, literally all they do is approximate the next characters ("output tokens") based on tokens they've already read.
To the extent they are "getting worse" is because of recursion to emulate thinking and reasoning, stretching out the approximations even further (increasing entropy).
This is fact not opinion, there's really nothing more to discuss about their abilities. Therefore, all the articles in the world about the limitations/possibilities/future of AI that are not rooted in understanding of this fact are noise.
So why do most people treat them as magic?
What's the grounds for the hype?
And why so many indignant articles about how retarded they are?
The author seems to understand this, so who is he preaching to?
I think the beef isn't with LLM's, but the expectations that have been set by people in the industry as they push products in search of use-cases to recover the fire hose of money thrown at them.
It's another technology hype-bust cycle, one disillusioned author at a time, lamenting and coping that it can't do what they believed it could.
imo, we've already crossed the peak of inflated expectations but haven't yet crossed the trough of disillusionment.
LLMs are amazing for certain tasks, and they're gonna be world changing, but it's not some existential threat, nor will it solve all the world's problems, as some would seem to believe
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I agree with your assessment, nice chart.
I do think there are some people starting to share my epiphany in that AI is the new UI. The shift in investment from foundational models to wrappers is indicative of this, plus all the helpers being baked into chat bots and things like MCP... LLM's are just a new way of calling real API's without a front-end designer to mediate that with the user. That's the enlightenment imo.
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