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Oh, man... I thought we were over this. NOOOO, OH, NOOOO!
BECAUSE??? Everyone wantz ze bitcoin treazuryz
PROBLEM 1:
If you have a big pot of crypto, you will want a public company, so there is a good business in supplying public companies to crypto investors. (Particularly small public companies that don’t have much in the way of existing operations, so that they can easily pivot to just holding crypto.) If you have a $100 million pot of Bitcoin, merging with a public company will make it worth $200 million, so you would happily pay, like, $40 million to the people who own the public company, even if it has no value other than its public listing.
PROBLEM 2, efficient market hypothesis go fuck itself:
If you have a big pot of crypto, you should not sell it to a crypto buyer. You should sell it to the stock market. If you own 1,000 Bitcoins, those are worth $118 million if you sell them on the Bitcoin market, but $236 million if you take them public as a crypto treasury company.
If you sell Bitcoins on the Bitcoin market, you only get the price of Bitcoin! If you package your Bitcoins into a stock, you can sell them at a 100% premium! ... Cantor’s currency — shares of a public Bitcoin company — is **worth more than cash. **
Yes, it's all so very annoying that Saylor's sats are worth more than mine (#984224).
(StrategyTracker says 1.98 mNAV so yeah that kind of checks out... @Undisciplined will check my math and ridicule me).
The business model is pretty simple:
  1. accumulate "bitcoinz"
  2. get your hands on a publicly listed company (=specialized, privileged access to the capital markets)
  3. say random shit about bitcoin innovation "the future of money, Bitcoin capital markets services, etc."

But WHYYY?

well, it works. And prices decide, and markets are efficient blah-blah.
As David Bailey says, “If you can sell a dollar for more than a dollar, you do that trade all day long.” (#1019573, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/takes/are-bitcoin-treasury-companies-ponzis)

"There is enormous value to be captured by moving Bitcoins into the public market, and everyone with a pot of Bitcoins wants that value for themselves."

On the first point, we talk a lot around here about small public companies that get gobbled up by crypto entrepreneurs so they can pivot to being crypto treasury companies. But this is inefficient and haphazard: If you want to take a pot of crypto public on the stock exchange, why should you have to find some defunct public biotech company, negotiate with its executives, strike a deal, lay off the biotech researchers, etc.?
Banks being banks and doing banksy things
In particular, Cantor Fitzgerald LP is in this business: the general business of raising SPACs, and the specific business of merging SPACs with pots of Bitcoin. We talked in April about Cantor Equity Partners Inc., a Cantor SPAC that announced a deal with Bitfinex/Tether and SoftBank to wrap their Bitcoins in a public company. The company will be called Twenty One Capital Inc., and the SPAC’s trading price currently implies about a 200% premium on the value of its Bitcoins. That’s a great trade for Tether and SoftBank. And for Cantor, which sponsored the SPAC and stands to make a lot of money on the deal.
OOOBBVSIOUly we're talking about the "Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company," yet anooother Strategy copy-cat Ponzi (#1019584) type financial engineering added to the sevenhundred blah-blah others out there. It's all so very tiresome #1014681
Sure, of course. BSTR has, let’s say, 30,021 Bitcoin. Those would be worth about $3.5 billion if it sold them, but if it takes them public they should be worth at least $7 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald is in the business of supplying public companies to pots of Bitcoin, so BSTR is combining with Cantor Equity Partners I — not to be confused with Cantor Equity Partners, which did the Twenty One deal — to take its pot of Bitcoins public. BSTR’s Bitcoins will be worth more on the stock exchange than they are as Bitcoins, and Cantor, as the SPAC sponsor, will get a cut.
Didn't seem to work too well this time
At noon today, the SPAC’s stock was trading at around $13.93 per share, implying only about a 39% premium on BSTR’s stash of Bitcoins, well below my normal expectations of 100+% premiums. Perhaps the market for this sort of thing is finally getting a bit saturated? (even worse now... only +16%, given that I got the right ticker https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEPO/)

Here's an interesting comment... they all just become one/cannibalize each other, or merge into a single, massive BTC entity??

Why do investors need a choice of two more-or-less identical pristine pots of Bitcoin? (Not to mention all the other ones out there, plus MicroStrategy Inc.: I just mean that there are two big pots of Bitcoin that are going public via Cantor Fitzgerald SPACs within a few months of each other.)
Ah man, this will all end in tears!

133 sats \ 3 replies \ @Scoresby 11h
You know, I saw this article earlier and didn't post it because I was hoping you'd give us your take...and delivered!
Maybe it's not only that you need 1) a big pot of bitcoins and 2) a somewhat cheap, pointless publicly traded company, but you also need 3) a charismatic bitcoin celebrity to be the front for it.
Maybe the reason BSTR is not doing as well as the others is that Adam Back is not charismatic enough (despite being one of the grandaddy's of bitcoin celebrity).
Is there a wildly successful bitcoin treasury company that doesn't have a famous bitcoiner as its face? (I'll admit that Saylor kind of engineered his bitcoin fame while creating the company, but he was the first, so he gets a pass).
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Aaaayuw, thaaaank you!!
yeah, interesting that the front figure could matter
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I noticed the fact that the well known Bitcoin treasuries recruit or partner with some of the big charismatic Bitcoiners ( Mallers-21, Brunell - Semler). This and other Bitcoiners have a big reach which makes them perfect promoters for treasury companies. Personally , I think a lot of this treasury companies won’t make it through a bear market but my bet is on MSTR and 21, not investment advise.
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Saylor is charismatic in his own way. He's good at saying things that sound smart even when they aren't
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Competition makes sense if they're relying on different storage/security solutions or accumulation strategies.
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