We show that as transaction demand grows, BTC’s cost structure becomes asymptotically prohibitive due to bounded blockspace, while LN’s costs flatten, favouring oligopolistic routing infrastructure. Using game-theoretic constructs and strategic equilibrium analysis, we prove that Lightning hubs evolve into quasi-monopolistic entities exerting control over liquidity and routing paths, creating closed-loop rent cycles and systemic centralisation. We analyse Lightning’s evolution into a shadow banking system, demonstrating parallels to historical financial collapse scenarios rooted in opacity, leverage, and regulatory absence.
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