Last block was found 80h ago. In the last 5 days only 2 blocks were found. Despite expecting a block every 18 hours. Is OCEAN.xyz finding less blocks than expected?
Don't trust, verify! Here is the analysis of the last 6 months of data.
Key Findings
TL;DR: OCEAN.xyz is NOT finding fewer blocks than expected. The recent dry spell is just normal mining variance.
Statistical Analysis Results (Last 6 Months)
š Summary:
- Pool's average hashrate share: 0.64%
- Expected blocks: 162.8
- Actual blocks found: 193
- Difference: +30.2 blocks (+18.6%)
š§® Statistical Significance:
- Sample size: 176 days
- Mean daily difference: +0.17 blocks
- P-value: 0.031 (statistically significant at Ī±=0.05) which means that it's actually overperforming.
- Conclusion: No evidence OCEAN is underperforming
What This Means
The recent 80-hour gap and slow period over 5 days is just normal mining variance. The 6-month data clearly shows there's no systematic underperformance issue.
The slight positive difference could be explained by:
- Recent hashrate fluctuations
- Natural variance in mining luck
- Measurement timing differences
The important point: there's zero evidence of blocks being "missing" or any technical issues.
Mining Reality Check
With only 0.64% of network hashrate, OCEAN should find a block roughly every 18 hours on average. But "on average" doesn't mean every 18 hours exactly. Sometimes you get unlucky streaks (like now), sometimes lucky streaks.
The 80-hour gap feels concerning because humans struggle with exponential distributions, but mathematically it's well within normal variance for their hashrate share.
Don't trust, verify ā
- and the math shows the original concerns about systematic underperformance are unfounded.
Plots
Code
Feel free to ask for it in the comments.
Key Takeaways:
ā¢ No evidence of OCEAN finding fewer blocks than expected
ā¢ Recent dry spell is normal mining variance, not a red flag
ā¢ Statistical analysis over 6 months beats gut feelings about 5 days
ā¢ The "missing blocks" concern has been thoroughly debunked
Original question answered: OCEAN is performing as expected. Recent variance is just probability doing its thing.