drivers

scenarios

doom scenario

• demographics - this type of society would skew young
• cultural - probably a preference towards autocratic patriarchal and militaristic
• economic - likely a very basic economic system. informal tit-for-tat exchange based on trust, barter, hard assets & food hoarded

• i imagine high-quality knives from before the black swan would do very well, as well as other weapons. however in such an apocalyptic scenario there'd probably be a huge supply glut relative to the surviving population, so there'd probably be enough to go around, at least until the extant supply has rusted, rotted or been forever lost.
• high-proof alcohol would fetch a hefty premium, especially aged products like whiskeys. these require a lot of stability and a decent amount of infrastructure to produce, and as they are consumed the supply will dwindle
• cigarettes, same as prison yards - this is the defacto currency in hard times.

nothing ever happens

• boomer generation will be gone, and all of their wealth will be in the hands of other generations. this will be a big shift because currently, the boomer gen. holds a large percentage of the worlds net worth.
• continued digitalization of everything. young people being born today will be immersed their entire lives in a digital matrix. entertainment, socializing an gaming, shopping. even things like travel all be done immersively without leaving your screen.
• the rich get richer, although the boomers wealth has been spread across the generations, those generations will be unlikely to hold onto it. they'll have to spend it to survive, not being able to afford a home, the money will be spent on rent, trickling up the food chain to the wealthy. inflation and taxes will eat away at it
• business will continue to grow bigger, food, technology, clothing, etc all manufactured by large companies. mom and pop stores will continue to close en-mass
• as the work-force is replaced with automation, increasing unemployment for the unskilled.
• cost of living will continue to rise
• demographics - continue to skew old, as people have fewer and fewer kids
• cultural - highly digitalized, extreme celebrity/infuencer culture. some counter-culture trends are taking root such as dropping out and moving rural to cheap locations and becoming self-sufficient, populist political movements,
• economic - stagnant, the masses struggle to get by with high stress, long work hours. but pockets of lavish wealth exist living in gated opulence.

• whoever said clothes is is probably on to something. but i'd not choose run of the mill adidas tops or trainers, etc. if you pick out some clothes that are high-end today, $1k-10k per items - carefully selected - store them well, kept in perfect condition, in 20-25 years they could fetch a large premium.
• although it's probably not a popular opinion around here, NFTs could have a comeback. much like how pokemon cards made a comback 20 years after their initial hype, we could see a nostalgic comeback among the high-end NFTs that fetched insane premiums during the 2022 hype cycle.
• now days you can buy high quality english made tools for next to nothing. the demand is low because most people don't work with their hands anymore, and the supply is still quite high. however, as those boomers pass on, their old tools end up at yard sales and dumping grounds. the supply will shrink and, additionally, as people struggle to make ends meet they'll be forced to fix their own leaks, do their own house renovations, fix their broken furniture, etc and also to learn new hands on skills that can't be automated. money will be tight and they won't be able to afford new expensive tools, or new cheap tools that last a few months. they'll buy up these old tools and the prices will 10x. for example right now you can buy an 100 year old english made hand-plane, made out of high quality steel, cast iron with rosewood handles. $30. ridiculously cheap, easily has room to 10x and still be a good deal.
• although it's not a collectible asset, rural housing in cheap locations around the world will out-perform it's stagnanting urban counterpart. my knowledge only extends to europe here, but for example, right now you can purchase houses in rural parts of italy and spain for well under $10k. as people struggle to make ends meet in big expensive cities, people will move to the countryside. especially young families looking for a higher quality of life. and those who can work remotely.

human flourishing

• demographics - i'd like to think that in a healthy and flourishing society people will have more kids. they'll have time to dedicate to their children, as well as more quality time to spend with their partners 🛌💘
• cultural - ??? - needs thought
• economic - more evenly distributed but with wealthy capital holders allocating their resources as they see fit. less wealth redistribution towards counterproductive ends such as war and over-prices social services
• ???
• ???
• ???
• ???
• ???