After the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused accelerated inflation all over the world, what do those numbers look like in 2025? According to the International Monetary Fund, inflation is projected to remain elevated significantly above the recommended 2 percent in much of the world even this year. This is despite the fact that 30 countries are expected to have returned to target inflation between 2022 and the end of 2025, including many in Western Europe. Inflation meanwhile stayed elevated in parts of Africa, the Americas - including in the United States -, Asia and Oceania. While eastern Europe recovered slightly, Russia and its neighbors are seeing inflation pressures that are not subsiding as the war in Ukraine continues.
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According to its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts global inflation to reach 4.3 percent this year, down from 8.6 percent in 2022 and 6.6 percent in 2023. However, projected inflation for 2025 in the G7 and the Euro area is already a lot lower, at a respective 2.6 percent and 2.1 percent. In the United States, the organization is expecting inflation of 3.0 percent this year as some "tentative signs of pass-through from tariffs and a weaker dollar" manifest. “While global inflation continues to decline, the latest price data suggests that inflation pressures are building gradually in the US. Overall, US import prices in dollars have remained largely unchanged or even increased this year, suggesting that the cost of tariffs will be borne by US retailers, and eventually customers as firms start to pass through higher costs into their prices”, the IMF finds.
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Despite uncertain market conditions amid the Trump administration's tariff regime and major global conflicts, the International Monetary Fund has upped its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 slightly. In 2025, the world economy is expected to grow by 3 percent, up from 2.8 percent projected in April. In 2026, this is expected to rise again to 3.1 percent, up from a previous forecast of 3.0 percent. Growth forecasts for most economically advanced countries have also been upped slightly or remained the same, for example in case of the United States, the United Kingdom or Germany. Projections rose a little more for China (while a general slowdown of the country's economy remains on the books), while only some upwards correction was made for India. Downwards changes happened for Japan in 2026 and Russia for both 2025 and 2026.
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