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If there's stagflation, it'll be due to the regime uncertainty more so than reduced activity from tariffs.
Lots of projects are paused, while producers wait for clarity on what their input costs will be going forward. It matters less what the rate ends up being than that it is known, because they need to make commitments to particular production processes and which process makes the most sense depends on the input prices they can get.
During this pause, there's less demand for labor and they have to charge more to ration the diminishing inventories that are being depleted.
Stagflation = Economic Chaos = regime uncertainty.
Whenever there's stagflation in economy, the biggest reason has been regime uncertainty. So in a way it's true. I'm saying this time the dramatic agenda of tariffs is pushing it in such direction.
This will be like a "double whammy" where we'll most probably see high inflation (as fed projects) leading to stagflation.
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We certainly might. Right now we have neither high inflation nor high unemployment.
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