pull down to refresh

I took the advice of @grayruby and listened to the earnings call and Fold had a really good Q2
Adjusted EBDITA is still negative thus their earnings per share is still in the negative. They beat the estimated EPS.

The Bitcoin Per Share (BPS) is 2,097 sats!

Highlights from the call include the following:
  • They have no debt at the moment
  • The $250M credit line they have they will start to spend from that to grow their business
  • Growth is coming with limited marketing spend
  • Strong revenue expecting more growth from the gift card and credit card products
  • Increased their bitcoin position by 50%
  • Q4 is their big quarter due to holiday spending
One disappointment I have is no mention of lightning and use of it to better the business also they called having a functional bitcoin wallet a major milestone but I consider that a basic fundamental function every bitcoin business should have.
Overall I’m bullish on Fold and will continue to add shares. Stock is up 9% in after hours trading. I am curious who their credit card partner will be.
expenses:
-Banking & payment processing $14.4 million -Compensation & benefits $10.1 million -Professional fees (legal, audit, consulting, etc.) $3.1 million -Other selling, general & administrative (SG&A) $2.4 million -Marketing $1.0 million -Custody & trading costs $0.2 million
if their major product is banking services and the banking services are their biggest expense it appears that their expenses will continue to grow as they acquire customers.
this is not a good business. there is a reason they listed via a SPAC.
reply
What about the new products the gift cards and credit card? Plus the compensation is a bit high.
It’s a growing business that is why the price is under $10. Wall Street is taking your position thus they expect it to fail .
I wonder how many shares are short.
reply
i'm betting they lose money on the credit card (most companies use it as a loss leader like costco) and doubtful there is any uptake of bitcoin gift cards
reply
Well your short position should do very well then. If so bearish put you fiat where your thesis is
reply
not shorting just betting it won't outperform bitcoin so i'm not participating
reply
How are you betting with nothing at risk.
If you were true to your convictions you would profit from it. That is why we all buy Bitcoin
I'm eager to cancel my current card in favor of Fold's.
I assumed they would still work with Visa for the card. Wasn't the issue something else?
reply
Prefer Gemini, to stack more sats. Fold was WAY better in the past. They had % back now it’s way lower
reply
Yeah they had a deal with another issuer that fell through.
I could be wrong but Visa is the network the card issuers use to facilitate payments. So the issuer (usually a bank) is the one extending the credit to the customer Visa’s network just captures the fee.
American Express is unique because they own the network and issue the credit to their customers.
On the call the CEO Will mentioned they have a well documented issuer willing to do the deal with fold. A part of me is hoping it is AMEX but I doubt it.
reply
Ok, that sounds right.
It's small potatoes, but did they say anything about buying Lolli?
reply
Nah from what I understand the co founder of fold has another business that acquired Lolli. It’s not 100% clear to me if that co founder of fold is running that business in parallel to fold or as a subsidiary
reply
73 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 13 Aug
This is a FANTASTIC! Breakdown!!! I am so happy I grabbed another 40 shares last week at $4! I was wondering what the sats per share was and man 2097 is killing it!
reply
Absolutely. I almost smashed bought another 100 shares today haha
reply
i'm surprised they don't make any money. businesses like strike are cash flow positive with just bitcoin buys and sells alone.
reply
They make money but they have a ton of overhead for being a newly public company thus higher expenses. And they increase their employee count
reply
yeah i am not really sure what their expenses are. the app is pretty stale, listing gift cards doesn't cost anything, they make a spread on bitcoin sales... yet have negative earnings per share.
biggest expense is compliance for their debit card and that just uses visa rails. strike has 75 employees and a massive amount of money transmitter licenses and is cash flow positive.
fold can't even get a credit card off the ground that blockfi and gemini had for a long time.
something seems off about their expenses and their execution speed.
reply
To get a feel for their expenses I would need to read the 10-Q.
Comparing strike to fold doesn’t make sense at this moment. Strike is a private company besides the peek Jack gave us we don’t know the true financial position of the company.
But I agree the app is stale and not as clean as Strike but they offer a different product suite than strike plus they are going after a different market.
Strike was going to bring a debit card to strike but then decided against its. Jack thought the spend wasn’t worth it and not the type of customer he wanted to appease.
reply
Nice. Proof of work!
reply