As the recent trials have shown, exchanges and chain analysis companies are grossly incompetent at actually identifying coins so it could be pretty easy to arbitrage without actually giving up anything.

There's already a premium market for clean BTC, it's the institutional over-investment in miners for their clean-BTC yield

MARA et al are the dealers for know-your-provenance coins

There's no such thing as "tainted BTC" or "clean". Saying that such thing exist is just stupid. If that will ever exist it will TWO DIFFERENT "COINS" , two different chains and not anymore Bitcoin.

We'll probably find out what happens at some point.

What does gold do on the black market? Is it a premium compared to its paper claims?

Are KYC coins really expected to be more valuable in such a situation? That's the only way I could see separate markets with separate prices emerging. How much could the difference be? Anything more than few bips would be easy to arbitrage.

Bisq

The taint is in your mind.

Might be good in that it could jump start a circular economy (tainted sat holders need somewhere to spend their sats).

Little bit KYC, little bit non KYC

The blockchain will continue to work moving bitcoin, I don't depend on exchanges to move my money.

Good. More business for us. Since people started running those stupid AML bots there is more demand for BTC->L-BTC and BTC->LN swaps.