US CPI has been above Fed's 2% target for 53 months in a row

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US CPI has been above Fed's 2% target for 53 months in a row - Michael Brown pepperstone.com/en-gb/analysis/navigating-markets/powell-to-disappoint-the-doves-at-jackson-hole/

884 sats \ 8 comments \ @Scoresby 20 Aug econ

Headline US CPI has now been north of the Fed's 2% aim for 53 months running...the third longest stretch in the last 5 decades...

This actually becomes even uglier using the Fed's preferred gauge - Core PCE prices - which have been above target for 52 months running, the second longest run over that period

Meanwhile, unemployment has been under 4.5% (a decent proxy for 'full employment) for 45 months running...the longest streak since the '70s

I'd argue these 3 charts reinforce the FOMC's view that the inflation side of the dual mandate is further from being achieved than the employment side, hence reinforcing the Committee's 'wait and see' policy stance, which J-Pow should reinforce at Jackson Hole on Fri

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123 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 20 Aug

Cool charts.

I’m surprised everyone keeps overlooking this, but there are hundreds of thousands of out of work feds right now who aren’t in the unemployment numbers.

It doesn’t radically change the picture but it’s still significant.

57 sats \ 2 replies \ @Scoresby OP 20 Aug

People complain about CPI being bad, but unemployment numbers seem to be even worse (in the sense that they are inaccurate). Don't you just love that we make decisions about monetary policy based on made up numbers and the feels?

15 sats \ 0 replies \ @Daedalus 20 Aug

All by design.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 20 Aug

I’ve never thought about which metric is worse. Both are misleading (don’t measure what people think they do), conceptually flawed, and measured poorly.

73 sats \ 1 reply \ @Daedalus 20 Aug

Haha they even can't lie hard enough with the political propaganda tool known as the CPI. Dark days ahead.

102 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 21h

I'm sure it will all get better when we lower interest rates... dark, indeed

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @nichro 20 Aug

the question is which will end up being worse when september&october FOMC comes, unemployment or inflation?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 20 Aug

The world wants to know wen rate cuts? Trump today again criticized Powell for Housing crisis, he means Powell is the culprit for every mess after Biden. What a drama!