Are The Men Who Know Most The Most Gloomy? \ stacker news ~AI

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Are The Men Who Know Most The Most Gloomy?

In 1955, Einstein and a dozen scientists wrote to Congress about the danger of nuclear weapons, saying "the men who know most are the most gloomy."

How do the "men who know most" about today's most commonly cited danger (AI) feel?

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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 22h

I liked #1092409 that @lunin shared today but this is likely because I agree with the message in it: it tries to convey a cautious approach highlighting vulnerability, not in software written, but in the marketing approach and vision carried out by leaders.

I think the real danger is that people actually listen to Sam Altman. Thus far, he seems to be winning, which is worrisome.

10 sats \ 9 replies \ @Scoresby 21h

I don't think the men who were gloomy about nuclear weaponry stood to gain quite so much as the men who are gloomy about AI.

AI doomerism often strikes me as advertising, while nuclear doomerism seems more like genuine fear.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 21h

What are the AI doomers trying to advertise?

115 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby 21h

In the case of people like Musk and Altman, I think they benefit from doomerism because it makes their product look powerful and impressive -- who wouldn't pay $20 / month for a thing that could end the world?

For the academics, they're advertising themselves: predicting doom is exciting and thrilling. Saying AI isn't that interesting or that it won't live up to the hype is not going to get you featured in newspapers. Saying we're playing with fire and we could all die tomorrow with some citations and a concerned frown can get you on a front page.

102 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 20h

Also we live in an attention age and doomerism is popular on pretty much all sides. If you wanna piss of people tell them to chill out. I've experienced a lot of this.

Our AI is so amazing we are afraid it will become self aware and so we want DC to regulate it. Its so transparent to me that this is a scam. AGI has been right around the corner for a few years now.

Its not all rainbows and ponies but we aren't gonna end the world with AI. Its hogwash.

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @kepford 20h

Commented before I read any comments but this is my sense too.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @BallLightning 7h

Is "doomer" a derogatory word?

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @kepford 2h

What do you think?

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @BallLightning 2h

I am trying not to influence the response.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford 2h

lol, OK. Doomer to me is a descriptor. Not sure I'd consider it very derogatory but I don't consider it a complement. I could also use "defeatist". Doomers often use it as an excuse to be passive. That's my experience but it can also just be a mindset that people can break out of.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BallLightning 1h

OK... I think using non-neutral adjectives has the downside of making the discussion less factual and more emotional.

535 sats \ 6 replies \ @chaoticalHeavy 24 Aug

They are always gloomy because they can't control their own thoughts and beliefs.

They go down deep rabbit holes, finding more and more details to support their "reality habit".

True enLightenment ignores those details and focuses on the Light that those thoughts and beliefs obscure.

105 sats \ 5 replies \ @kr OP 23h

I’m not sure if Sam Altman is one of those “who know the most” about AI, but he seems quite optimistic.

Elon has warned about the danger of AI in the past, but now seems less concerned.

I’m sure there are brilliant people who have played major roles in building AI tools and have serious concerns too, so seems like a mixed bag of opinions on the surface.

42 sats \ 4 replies \ @optimism 22h

Altman, Musk, Zuck, Huang, et al, lead businesses that are billions upon billions in the red on LLMs. They aren't who know most, and they are doomed if it fails. They have no choice but to be optimistic. Don't take their words as informed, other than informed-to-suck-more-money.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @kr OP 21h

Who knows most about AI?

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @optimism 21h

I'd say those that do the architecting.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 21h

Who would you put on the Mt Rushmore of AI knowledge today?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 19h

No one. Worshipping is for newbs.

5 sats \ 2 replies \ @SimpleStacker 23h

I don't think so. Think about bitcoin. The men who know the most about bitcoin are the most optimistic (compared to the general public at least)

I think it really just depends on the technology and the social situation

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @teremok 22h

Actually I would say those who know the most about it, and by that I mean programmers, are not very optimistic.

There was a popular case of suicide by a known developer in the cryptography and security field.

5 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 22h

In what ways are they not optimistic?

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 20h

To me it seems like a massive difference today. The ones most vocal about AI dangers seem to have incentives (business) that give me skepticism. I don't believe Einstein had a financial incentive to scare people as Scam Altman does. He has a massive incentive to create a regulatory moat.

Now there are others that probably have legitimate concerns as I do but it's not AI. It is how people can be fooled in many ways about it and its ability to be correct or aware. The masses don't understand it and AI chatbots are best and tricking people into thinking they are smart and human.

Also the atomic era was hard science. Today we are talking about psychology and economics with AI and I have very little confidence that those in the field get either of them.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @stack_harder 24 Aug

generally, ignorance is bliss

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 23h

Is it always the case that those who know most about a topic are most gloomy? Or are there instances where the reverse is true too?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Grateful 5h

Don’t ask me. I know nothing.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BallLightning 7h

I would advice anybody who wants to really learn about the real dangers of AI to check Robert Miles's youtube channel. Many other people are misrepresenting the dangers or are presenting "dangers" that are missing the real danger.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @LAXITIVA 14h

Men don’t know shit

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ZezzebbulTheMysterious 19h

The men that know the most about AI are cashing in. They don’t care about the rest of society, or the effects it will have on it. You are a pleb, who will pay your dues from your pittance subsistence wages forever. They are drunk on fiat.

You can’t compare good scientists like Einstein, who genuinely cared about the world and peace.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @tttooocccooolll 20h

I’ve always felt this way about CBDCs which, I think are going to be more covert than ever after the genius act.