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I'm not makng predictions at all. If you read my original post i am asking if you would attempt to create something like an assassinstion market using bitcoin. After reading jim bell's description of how it is supposed to work, i believe bitcoin has fallen short of how the cypherpunk's requirement for privacy and is unsuitable to build this kind of software.
I am saying that bitcoin is unsuited for creating something like this, because it is not private or fungible. Even if you wanted to create something like this, you would not use bitcoin because privacy has not been a priority for bitcoin.
Either this is timeless, and hence is a prediction, or it's just a statement about the current privacy UX of bitcoin. I wouldn't argue Bitcoin's privacy UX is very strong. I would argue it can eventually be.
You seem to be arguing it will never be strong?
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yeah, i am arguing it will never be strong because it has already accepted a billion dollar blockchain surveillance industry
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