Since mid-July, when the AIA shared its June Architecture Billings Index (ABI) report, not much has changed. The score for July dropped again to 46.2, a decline from June’s 46.8—any score below 50 indicates a decline in billings—continuing the downward trajectory of business conditions.

“Business conditions remain challenging for architecture firms nationwide, with billings declining across all regions in July,” said Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist, in a statement. “Client inquiries into new projects continue to build. Still, while commercial and institutional sectors show some signs of stability, the multifamily residential sector still is facing significant headwinds.”

In June, the South was the only region to report an index higher than 50, but it dropped again this month, highlighting the volatility of current economic conditions. In July, the Northeast was the region with the strongest score, 47.8, and the Midwest was the weakest, 45.1.

In addition to regional averages, the AIA also breaks down the ABI by sector. The historically stronger commercial/industrial sector has been trending lower, but reported a relatively strong 49.9 in July, to which the AIA said, “there was nearly an equal share of firms reporting an increase in billings as reporting a decline for the second consecutive month.”

The AIA looks to the Federal Reserve’s purview over interest rates, the general trends of the wider job market, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to inform its analysis.

The organization noted in its report the CPI is up 0.2 percent from June and the job market has slowed. It dubbed inflation as “stubborn” but said optimistically, “it seems likely that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates modestly during its September meeting.”

But will lowered interest rates be enough to improve business conditions for architects?

Still lots of pain out there. A/E firms having a hard time finding work. Inquiries are rising but capital is still tight to engage in new projects. A part me thinks it’s sad that the fate of the A/E industry relies on a central bank and if it cuts rates or not. How far we have come.