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I don't think AI is a big factor in this. I mean, it is a factor but the general idea that everyone should go to a 4 year university has been flawed for decades. It depends as do most things.
  • Education / Knowledge has value but its not all the same value and there are many ways to acquire it.
  • Certification or signals have value. This is the last part keeping people going to college. Companies still use the degree as a signal. This is declining though due to the fact that everyone is pushed to have it.
  • Opportunity cost is real. If you can gain the paper in less time you are gonna be ahead of others and start sooner. Systems that realize this will beat those that don't.
  • Cost is a huge factor. The cost of college has risen sharply. The more government backed loans have become common the higher the costs have become. Fiat does this.
We are watching the existing system fall apart. Its not gonna die completely but its going to have to change. It just doesn't work for everyone. It never did.
I have a degree. It helped. Not the education. I have learned far more on my own for far less money. The paper opened a few doors. I'm pretty sure I could have been successful without it though.
Knowing what I know we set up my sons to earn college credit for free in High School. Then they have worked toward 2 year degrees in community college largely online while working jobs. If they decide to do so they can continue to a four year degree which is a much higher price tag. I suspect they won't need to do this though.
If they wanted to be doctors or lawyers or some other gate kept thing they'd have to jump through the hoops. I think parents have to think about these things critically. I have very very negative thoughts about public education and we largely avoided it with our family. But I don't believe in cutting off my nose to spite my face. I believe in being smart and adapting.
Start with what you want your life to be. Design your life. Don't be passive. Don't resign yourself to some pre-filled life path. I see so many people doing this. Its sad. Don't go into massive debt sending your kids to a 4 year university when they have no clue what they want to do. Let them try things. Get them working as soon as you can. Even if it is for you and for no money. Many of us don't know we love or hate things until we try them. Don't let the system decide for your family.