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New nonfarm payrolls shows the U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, when economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected about 75,000 jobs to be added. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, matching forecasts. The dollar weakened and Treasury yields declined.
‣ Nonfarm Payrolls +22K vs +75K Est ‣ Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% Est ‣ Avg Hourly Earnings YoY 3.7% vs 3.8% Est
RATE CUTS CONFIRMED.
I’d love to see a breakdown that tries to account for the recent changes in federal employment.
Most of the 300k people leaving their positions are still officially employed but they are definitely indirectly impacting the unemployment rate by competing for the limited positions available.
Some large chunk of them retired, though, and with the hiring freeze in place those positions aren’t being replaced. That’s definitely suppressing change in employment numbers.
This matters because these are nonproductive jobs and will not affect the economy in the same way as changes in private sector employment.
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