Russia Makes Insane Move As Multiple Drones Cross Into Poland \ stacker news ~Politics_And

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Russia Makes Insane Move As Multiple Drones Cross Into Poland

304 sats \ 38 comments \ @Cje95 7h Politics_And_Law

Holy smokes just when I thought that Israel would be the biggest geopolitical story today Russia did a "Hold My Beer." Earlier today Poland announced it was closing its border with Belarus due to "unplanned military exercises" by Russia. These exercises happened earlier and have been on going but with a dramatic difference in how they were being undertaken (in other words they were mock invading Poland) and their intensity.

However, now that we are seeing multiple drone incursions into Eastern Poland Russia is going to have an issue. Previously they have had a drone drift over and be shot down before but according to early reports Poland has shot down multiple with Ukraine intercepting some as well.

From what we can see with Flightrader24.com NATO aircraft are scrambling and responding to Eastern Poland and commercial airlines have moved further away than they already were. With additional unverified reports of Russian drones entering Moldova and Slovakia this is a huge huge issue that could rapidly spiral out of control.

Moldova has been frequently attacked by Russia via cyber and misinformation campaigns as well as the fact they occupy Transnistria and have used there small deployment of troops there to harass Ukraine and Moldova. Moldova has also been hit by multiple Russian drones that "missed" Ukraine.

This isn't something that Russia is going to be able to explain away as Europe has increasingly let Ukraine take the gloves off against Russia and any sort of attack on Poland with have dramatic and damming consequences for Putin. The best thing for everyone would be they were downed in open fields because otherwise..... Poland has been building itself into a little Texas.... They wont hold back.

An Italian Early Warning Aircraft leaving Estonia flying towards Poland.

This is supposedly the drone paths so far.

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10 sats \ 9 replies \ @ek 7h

well, as a neighbor of Poland, this definitely gets my attention

but I will try to stay calm, since "nothing ever happens"

and I also don't like how you usually report stuff, so some news that suddenly feels relevant to me shouldn't change my mind, lol

21 sats \ 8 replies \ @Cje95 OP 6h

Stay safe! It looks like the country is pretty covered with fighters now and airborne refueling planes. Lol I try to share whats breaking or pressing and this after the Israeli strike is just wild to me.

I cant figure out if Putin is really testing his ability to survive or if someone massively screwed up and hes going to hang them out to dry.

69 sats \ 7 replies \ @ek 6h

thanks, I still remember when I woke up and the invasion began 3.5 years ago and everyone said Ukraine would surrender in a few days, and I was like "guess I should start learning Russian," lol.

I have a similar feeling now

I actually did start to learn Russian

55 sats \ 6 replies \ @SimpleStacker 6h

How worried are people in Europe genuinely about Russia? Like I know there's been a lot of chatter about it, and investment in European defense companies has skyrocketed, but how does the average citizen feel in terms of the actual likelihood of Russia invading a NATO country?

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4h

I have read some super interesting things going on in the Baltic like how they have ripped and replaced their existing train lines with the EU standard. Turns out Russia doesn't have anything that can run on those size tracks.

They are also looking at and this had me laughing. Estonia is looking at restoring its bogs (they cover 9.9% of the country) along the border with Russia because Russia has shown it can't deal with muddy/boggy conditions lol. Not only would it be an environmental win but also a security one as well!

17 sats \ 1 reply \ @kristapsk 2h

I have read some super interesting things going on in the Baltic like how they have ripped and replaced their existing train lines with the EU standard.

Where did you read such bullshit? There is plan in some far future to standardize railway gauge in all EU to 1435 mm, but that includes not only replacing 1520 mm in Latvia and Lithuania, but also 1524 mm in Estonia and Finland, 1600 mm in Ireland (sounds stupid, why to replace anything on an island) and 1668 mm in Spain and Portugal.

Only active project regarding 1435 mm currently ongoing is Rail Baltica, but that's nowhere near completion (will connect Tallinn to Warsaw) and has big funding problems (due to costs rising multiple times, as it always happens with big government projects).

Btw, before World War II both 1520 mm and 1435 mm tracks were operational in Latvia in parallel, but 1435 mm got demolished by Soviet Union. Back then you could go with a single train from Riga to Paris ("Nord Express").

But, yes, Russia is very dependent on railroads for logistics. Even before full scale invasion into Ukraine began, lot of experts ananlyzed that biggest problem for Russia could be not enough trucks, not not enough tanks. Good that Latvia have already demolished some rail lines going to Russia that wasn't in active use anymore, only single line to Russia and single line to Belarus are left (used for cargo only).

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 2h

found the train sperg

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek 6h

I don't know, I don't really talk about it with others, not sure if they do with each other. I also don't follow the local news, only SN.¹

But I assume most people are more concerned about energy prices than about WW3

more or less forced, not sure I'd still be here if I weren't working on it lol, I've grown really tired of the internet ↩

55 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 6h

more or less forced, not sure I'd still be here if I weren't working on it lol, I've grown really tired of the internet

Ah, sad! Do you find SN to be pretty much the same as the rest of the internet?

30 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 6h

No, it's definitely the best place for me, SN has early internet vibes, and I think our model can make the internet suck a lot less again

I just don't know if it's going to suck a lot less enough

By "not sure I'd still be here", I probably meant something more like "I would be a lot less here" (because I would be a lot less online in general)

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @justin_shocknet 4h

Tried to tell you back on March, the setup is for Suwalki Gap next

#930791

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Cje95 OP 3h

So they waited to late for the gap. The Baltic country replaced all the train lines Russia uses and over 20k NATO troops have been stationed there. Plus Dragons Teeth are being installed. These people took what they saw in Ukraine and applied it. The fortifications are absurd and Poland has already stated if Russia crosses over they will neutralize Kaliningrad.

17 sats \ 0 replies \ @kristapsk 2h

The Baltic country replaced all the train lines Russia uses

No, it hasn't been done. You can do that so fast. You need not only replace all the tracks, also buy completely new rolling stock. Which somebody needs to produce, nobody keeps bunch of trains in warehouses, they are manufactured on demand for specific customer needs.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @justin_shocknet 3h

Should tell them that before they fly more equipment over.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 OP 3h

Russia? F22’s alone eliminate the Russian threat in the gap area plus the F35’s

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 3h

They seem unimpressed 🤷

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4h

Its official Poland has confirmed it.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @spiderman 3h

Interesting developments.

But my worry is, does NATO have the fiscal leeway to respond if and when shit hits the fan?

The western economies are so overleveraged and dependent on the fiat debt ponzi schemes, that even a small sign of it unravelling will throw the central bankers into a hissy fit. In spite of the bankers' unlimited money printing capacities, now we are hearing all those safe-heaven bond yields are hitting peace-time highs, there are talks of France and UK going hat-in-hand to IMF for bailouts. Who would have thought the next emerging market would emerge in the middle of Europe?

So yeah...I think NATO has to pay the price by compromising on its military and geopolitical influence for the sins it committed by allowing leftist Keynesians and welfare muppets to take over the monetary and fiscal policies. It has some fancy toys, but it...just...cannot...afford using them.

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 OP 3h

110% because we could shift to wartime economies. Those puppies are secure and is why Russia hasn't collapsed. IMF is also Western-controlled controlled so 🤷🏼‍♂️ when you make something like the IMF and World Bank you kinda can call them over as you want.

The pure lethality of the US, Polish, and German Special Forces is unmatched except for maybe South Korea.

Also… once you have the toys you can easily use them? That's the issue getting them and them being fully baked but once they are like the B2 and F22 and F35 the US can run them and help out NATO esp when a country like Poland is buying so much from us.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @spiderman 3h

we could shift to wartime economies.

Who is we here? Poland? Or whole of NATO?

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 OP 3h

It would address all Western economies if you wanted to. It would fix the leverage issues across the board is what I was getting at. Poland, Germany, France, other Eastern Europe countries would def be the first to switch but the rest could easily follow suit

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @spiderman 3h

Yeah, wars, regime change and political turmoil are always opportune moments for erasing past obligations (the creditors be damned).

So how do you think we can play it best? Holding Bitcoin and Gold (self custody)? Will it be their (especially Bitcoin) chance to shine as the global reserve asset? Or you think the dollar (post the jubilee) will just get replaced by Chinese yuan?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nkmg1c_ventures 4h

There are multiple fronts of war going on right now, and civil unrest in places that aren’t getting bombed. Things are really fucked. Glad I live in a relatively peaceful place but this stuff gets to me

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @PictureRoom 4h

Here we gooooo

0 sats \ 12 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 5h

Chinas military proxy is emboldened by Trumps complete failure to end the war. USA cannot now project power effectively because China controls the supply of crucial rare earths that are essential to US armaments manufacture and more generally many high tech products the US depends upon. The eastern provinces Russia has already seized house the steel mills that produce most of the global supply of highly refined neon gas essential in the manufacture of the lasers used to make microchips... China has won the trade war and with its growing number of tributaries is challenging US global hegemony. Trump appears incapable of stopping them. The decline if not end of western civilisation is perhaps imminent.

0 sats \ 11 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4h

Jesus Christ he ends multiple wars within 6 months but because of one you think he's incapable. You quickly are over looking the rapid advancement of not just US but Australia’s. Plus Chinas hold on the Congo is just gone. They didn't stop that war Trump did.

Plus lets not forget China can't feed itself. Don't have to fight hard or much when the enemy is starving.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi 4h

Trump says he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day. July 3, 2024 But he can't.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4h

Dang man… I didn't know Trump was in office then. You can't even get your basic dates right for an argument your trying to pick but the facts are clear that China’s grip is slipping. If it wasn't they wouldn't have plunged the price of rare earths earlier this year and the US government placed a huge order for MP materials to prevent China from doing what it did last time at that mine when it was owned by Moly Corp and was bankrupted by the Chinese price manipulation

0 sats \ 8 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 4h

The US/west is utterly dependent upon Chinese supply of rare earths. China has cut off supplies to the wests military. Game over. Congo? vs Ukraine? Really? Sounds like US Exceptionalism Clutching at Straws.

0 sats \ 7 replies \ @Cje95 OP 4h

Wait… do you think Ukraine has more rare earths then the Congo that the US needs? This statement alone makes it clear you have no idea where rare earths are sourced from because there isn't a single Ukrainian mine.

Also since the Chinese caused prices to skyrocket a decade ago the DoD has built stockpiles. Then you have MP materials who refines and is about to finish there magnet factory outside of Dallas. The deposit in Round Top Texas is also gearing up with its processing and magnet manufacturing facility already operational.

The Chinese are cheaper but the US and Australia have rapidly and significantly addressed the issues they face.

Sounds like you are clutching at population collapse straws of a country with young adult unemployment hitting near 30% and an economy that's been contracting.

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 4h

Misrepresenting what I have said is not a good look- it reeks of desperation...and is simply dishonest. I never said Ukraine has more rare earths than Congo- I did say Eastern Ukraine is the source of the vast majority of highly refined and strategically important neon gas, a crucial ingredient in the manufacture of lasers required to produce microchips. There are many other strategic materials and processes besides rare earths.

Regarding rare earths, it is not just accessing the raw materials that are required to produce rare earths that is the problem- that is the easy part, it is subsequent the ability to refine those rare earths to the point where they are useful. Japan realised its dependence upon China on this front more than a decade ago and sought to fix it- but they have not done so because China can refine the rare earth more efficiently / at a lower cost than Japan can - and the USA with its decrepit industrial base is worse of in this respect than Japan.

The best estimates by experts in the field is that the US/west Might be able to rebuild its rare earth refining at massive cost and several decades but even then it would not be competitive with China and would involve huge cost and never be profitable.

China now has the ability to produce things much more efficiently than the west because the west has become mired in financial derivatives and all the cleverness and delusion they carry with them...while China has invested in productive infrastructure and skills -their top politicians are engineers, not corporate lobbyists or hotel developers/fiat debt slavery bankers proxies.

The west lacks the skills, incentives, and the infrastructure and the efficiency. China has the advantage. All the west has is the legacy control and sense of entitlement that comes after centuries of global dominance and imperialism- that does not magically enable you to wave a wand and refine all the strategic rare earths next week, next year or next decade. US Exceptionalists exceptional privilege, arrogance and entitlement, caught sleeping at the wheel.

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Cje95 OP 3h

China’s advantage is lax environmental policy around these refiners and cheap labor. Efficiency isn't a key thing with China at all? Its known to mass produce and by doing that address the issues that arise.

The US has already begun rapidly rebuilding it and you've ignored all the places and companies I've talked about that already do it in the US 😂

China has only boomed because they opened up to the West and now there provinces, local governments and many large companies are a complete and utter debt disaster. Are we going to also ignore when people last year were at banks demanding there money and the military moved in?

The DOE and the National Labs have also recently not only discovered but proved its economically viable to retrieve rare earths from coal ash. This method is already being deployed and scaled up plus it addresses the coal ash issue making it less toxic. The data is out there.

China is trying to make people addicted to their fiat and the would continues to push back so again your points were once more refuted your doing to dodge this and claim its US exceptionalism except your trying to prove Chinese exceptionalism with a country that is facing a significant population cliff within the next 15-20 years.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 3h

The experts say that the US cannot compete with China on refining rare earths and to even do so would require Huge State Subsidies and would take decades.

Rising empires often display characteristics that those in declining ones might disparage- things like slavery, racism, and compulsory confiscations of peoples gold.

But once dominance is gained and the population are more comfortable they demand more and more 'rights' and the rot begins.

It is the pattern of history- the rise and fall of empires- and it has never stopped, and may never.

China is rising and the US is in deep debt and chronic economic and societal decline, looking down its nose in disbelief at China and its annual Trillion dollar trade surpluses and its monopoly on rare earths...

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-strong-armed-japan-over-rare-earths-its-a-lesson-for-the-u-s-230f8379

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-rare-earths-exports-2fd0dab4

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 OP 3h

You literally did not refute anything I said. You did say that since China is rising in your eyes that I guess they like slavery and racism so…. That's a pretty interesting take…. Not sure what to say about that...

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 7h

https://xcancel.com/osinttechnical/status/1965555036089712661

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