Fortunately I lived to tell my tale.

The days of easy sats and casual approach to Predyx may be coming to an end.

Canelo Alvarez was slightly favoured in his matchup with Terence Crawford so I jumped on the YES shares. The market had very little liquidity so my buys pushed his odds up to around 68%, which was too high but I wanted a decent amount of shares and I could always sell off during the fight if needed.

The market being fairly illiquid made it ripe for domination though.

Crawford was looking much sharper through the first 3 rounds (although the official scorecards had it very close at this point) so I thought maybe I should get on Predyx and sell some of my Canelo shares. When I logged on to Predyx I was absolutely shocked to see Canelo YES was down to 1%. Some new predictor had jumped in and bought 100k NO shares. At this point selling my shares would be completely useless so I bought up some really cheap YES shares pushing it up to 2.5% and hoped for a Canelo knockout that never came.

In the end Crawford won by unanimous decision (official scorecards had it closer than a 97.5% probability would imply) but the Whale was proven right. I sold off my shares for a few sats and it was game over.

I will get you next time Moby Dick.

Sats for all, GR