This is a great article! There are so many complexities in prediction markets. 

> There is a clearly demonstrated bias baked into Polymarket. Almost every bucket in the chart below resolves to "yes" at a lower rate than expected. Market participants seem to overestimate the likelihood of most events, especially the lower probability buckets

While this could come from many sources, I love their theory that defend love long odds bets and in aggregate this distorts the market. 