This is a great article! There are so many complexities in prediction markets. 

> There is a clearly demonstrated bias baked into Polymarket. Almost every bucket in the chart below resolves to "yes" at a lower rate than expected. Market participants seem to overestimate the likelihood of most events, especially the lower probability buckets

While this could come from many sources, I love their theory that defend love long odds bets and in aggregate this distorts the market. 

Scoresby

for the folks unfamiliar with dune-dot-com who don't like clicking links; that's not actually an article, as you might have expected from Scoresby's comment. the site appears to allow users to create dashboards... some sort of metatraderingview abomination.

I doubt archiving this one more frequently than once per difficulty adjustment is useful; after all, payments from prediction markets need to get cleared before the relevant data is reliable.