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100 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 21 Sep \ on: Will Law Survive Hyperbitcoinization? Politics_And_Law
Please take off you orange tinted US Exceptionalist lenses.
And deal with fiat debt leverage reality.
Debt works to leverage wealth creation if it is mostly directed into assets that produce profits.
The west, its governments captured by corporate banker patrons has lost the ability to do that and instead allowed squandering of fiat debt capital issuance upon non productive speculative assets.
Mostly real estate. Because it suits the bankers and wealthy elites.
China in contrast has won the trade war and controls strategic supply chains- like rare earths...having consciously directed fiat debt capital issuance toward achieving supply chain dominance.
IE- using fiat debt leverage in a deliberate, productive and strategic manner.
The US has operated both a fiscal and trade deficit for decades.
Government debt is now reaching levels that look unsustainable.
The demand for USTs is declining and if interest rates rise = insolvency.
China operates a trade surplus over $1 Trillion.
USA/USD/SWIFT monetary hegemony collapses but China doesn't.
That is the current trajectory.
Bitcoin has already been largely captured and controlled as a taxed, KYCed state surveilled speculative commodity.
Bitcoin is not a viable MoE for international trade and thus no threat to fiat hegemony.
peers over black-tinted realist lenses
I don't think the US is magically exceptional. I do believe free-market capitalism with hard money is a force-multiplier for society since it incentivizes individuals to work and innovate. These days the best economic freedom is found in Singapore or Hong Kong. The Triffin's Dilemma-created trade surplus with China is certainly a big short-term advantage in production capability.
However, China (and every country uses pure debt-based fiat) suffers from the same bureaucratic and debt problems the US has - they're actively ramping up money printing daily right now to counteract the bad debt in their real estate and banking sectors.
The greatest threat to fiat hegemony is itself because fiat is fundamentally ineffective at storing value or rewarding the contributing members of society. Over time it leads to civil unrest and stagflation due to central banking and will splinter a country no matter how it manages its macro trade.
You might be right that China can outlast the US. But it can't outlast competition with superior monetary technology.
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Agree free market competition is fundamental to wealth creation.
But do not agree that it is the sole factor.
Instead, it is a combination of competitive free market productivity and state led strategic positioning that builds the most formidable economy.
And regarding fiat money- it can be used to accelerate growth in productivity as long it is not misused- as long is the fiat debt capital that leverages off of the existing monetary capital of all participants in any given fiat jurisdiction is directed toward productive - strategic purposes. Yes the Chinese real estate market is an example of where the Chinese allowed fiat to inflate non productive asset price- because they had not and still have not yet allowed sufficiently robust and diverse investment options for Chinese to access.
But apart from that weakness and failure, more generally the Chinese direct most/more fiat debt capital toward productive purposes than the west- where non productive fiat capital issuance has become the majority destination of new fiat issuance.
For example in my US subsidiary nation state of New Zealand, where 80% of the banking sector is majority owned by US shareholders, over 60% of finance provided by the banks is toward real estate- prior to the 1980s neoliberal 'reforms' it was less than 5%.
In the west capital has come to own governments and those captured governments have allowed the banks to issue fiat debt capital toward any purpose - not solely productive/infrastructure assets as was the case until neoliberal 'reforms'.
In contrast, in China, the government still directs capital- and most/the majority is directed toward productive purposes.
China deliberately builds capacity to produce the basic inputs for productive sectors by directing capital issuance toward natural monopoly infrastructure that feeds them.
Example- power generation is built and the factories come to use it.
The power price is kept low by power generators who are state owned and have no shareholder dividend imperative.
The private and competitive factories enjoy supply of electricity (and freight and communications etc) that are lower priced than those of their competitors in western economies where monopoly infrastructure assets are mostly owned by private rentseeking monopolies and cartels who do have a primary purpose of maximising dividends to shareholders and owe no obligation to the wider economy.
Fiat debt based capital issuance only drives wider wealth generation compensating for its inherent debasement when it is directed toward productive assets.
Chinas strategy of deliberately funding and building the core raw inputs for the productive sectors (energy, transport, communications, skilled workers) and ensuring they are provided at the lowest cost possible has built the Chinese economy that can now compete and win against all other economies.
It has worked.
In addition to directing capital to strategic supply chains like rare earths refining- China has the west over a barrel.
It is only with a government motivated to and determined to direct capital and develop strategic assets and supply chains that this is possible.
The wests free markets are incapable of ever refining rare earths and regaining independent supplies without massive state subsidies and decades of them at that.
Free markets alone, hard money alone, will not beat an economy that uses fiat debt capital in a consciously disciplined and directed manner to build the maximum competitive advantage for its productive sectors.
All dominant and successful empires from Rome to The British and USA have combined state military and power projection to maximise the wealth creation potential of their merchants and producers.
Britains government via its navy and their cannons enabled the East India company to capture and exploit markets and resources in India and China via Hong Kong.
The US has captured and controlled the majority of global institutions and protocols like the World bank, IMF, SWIFT etc and via the petrodollar sustained its post WW2 global hegemony. Its not just free markets but state lead investments, strategy and power projection that enables and determines the wealth of nations.
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