Timeline sounds reasonable. US has an advantage in that it can sort of balkanize into states - but it doesn't resolve the underlying public institution inefficiency and thus inability to provide safety.

Trying to get better projections around this timeline can feel a bit like abstract over-intellectualizing. But, I think it has very real repercussions. For example, if one needs to spend years to get second passports for their whole family or learn a new language or build an expertise in MMA & marksmanship those are all high-cost preparations that deserve well thought out projections. Suddenly the 2030s doesn't seem like its that far away!