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153 sats \ 17 replies \ @Undisciplined 22 Sep \ on: The dollar is having its worst year in decades econ
That can't be right. The people saying tariffs strengthen a currency were so sure of of themselves.
Wait... wasn't the goal to weaken the dollar so that domestic production becomes cheaper than foreign production? Like an emerging economy would? I.e. be more like China and less like Norway?
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There was a camp making a rather convoluted argument about how tariffs would actually strengthen the dollar and they were pretty belligerent about it.
I think the idea was to level the playing field with our trade partners who have very high non-tariff trade barriers.
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Lots of people said lots of things
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The world I (used to) live in:
- Overlord has target, states target
- To reach said target, overlord proposes a plan
- Non-overlords:
- Have an opinion about the target itself
- Have an opinion about whether the plan is likely to reach the target
I somewhat feel that this structure is gone.
Non-overlords now say the target isn't the target but there is another target, the overlord lies about the target, non-overlord opinions are stated as facts, the plan was never meant to reach said target... and so on. What a mess.
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Good summary
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I don't think the messaging around the tariffs was clear at all, beyond "MOAR JOBS"
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and manufacturing jobs are dropping
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP#:~:text=Observations,Release%20Date:%20Oct%203,%202025
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I'm reserving judgement on some of these things until the policy environment settles down.
I think a lot of the economic stagnation is due to regime uncertainty.
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The Depreciation of the Dollar Aug 6, 2025The U.S. currency depreciation could have significant impacts for consumers, businesses, investors and ultimately for the overall economy: It would be more expensive for Americans to travel abroad. U.S. assets could be less compelling for foreign investors. Import prices could rise, putting pressure on inflation. On the positive side, however, the weaker dollar could be a boost for American exporters.
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It's not convoluted at all, less imports of rubber dog shit from Temu = less dollar exports (currency exchange)
Very simple supply and demand, I'd think even you could understand it, well maybe only if you read it from a globalist rag first.
China is the primary target and largely does not have yet have those tariff yet in place, deadlines kicked to October and November
November 10, 2025: The temporary 10% reciprocal tariff is scheduled to increase to 34% unless extended again. October 14, 2025: New Section 301 fees are scheduled to take effect on deliveries by Chinese ships.
The front-running from announcement to implementation would and has temporarily increased dollar exports.
Also need to look at 1:1 pairs, DXY heavily weighs EUR, and the bulk of the loss was rapid into the EUR when globalist capital was re-repatriated from US stocks into EU defense stocks.
If you're so sure of yourself, let's see those CNY and EUR calls?
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Bernie Sanders and MAGA are indeed very alike. Both have as a primary motivation being against "the elites". Both are pro gun. Both are populists that want to solve complex problems by simple slogans, none of which including shrinking the state.
A thinker/philosopher of the Bernie wing, Slavoj Žižek, said it best why so many Commies like him like Trump:
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It is an interesting thought exercise to imagine what a Bernie presidency would have evolved into given the environment of the last decade. Unfortunately I think the vast inequality coupled with the bipolar extremism fueled by social media still brings us to a similar inflection point of outrage and violence.
That's an intriguing idea in that video, of Trump and MAGA being the heirs of the 60s counterculture and civil rights movements. Thanks for the share
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