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it would give China a huge advantage given their massive lead in robotics.
So ABB and Fanuc are officially disrupted? No more Kuka in automotive?
Idk mate... maybe @BlokchainB has more insights into this as our resident industry + AI stacker. I don't track industrial robotics myself, but why would the incumbent robotics providers still show growth if China has a massive lead? All I hear is that the current generation of Chinese robotics are extremely cheap, but I've heard at least some guys that ought to know (for example because they do process design for a living) say very recently that the reliability is still an issue versus Japanese robotics 1
But in technology development, planning design and manufacturing and productivity related to manufacturing AI combined with robotics does look to be a significant factor
Everyone is doing this, and have been for years. I think the interesting newer AI applications are on control plane and safety. See for example this nice product video from RA about their use of AI in continuous monitoring solutions, that can run off existing data as primitive as current drawing from engines.

Footnotes

  1. In manufacturing, every second of downtime is lost money, even if your equipment is relatively cheap, as mfg contracts have actual hard timelines and you pack that to the max.
Since 2021 China has had more robotics installed than all other nations combined. As you note China produces them at a much lower cost than any other nation. Similar to how China produces refined rare earths, EVs and EV batteries at a much lower more competitive price than any other nation. Sure there is still competition from other countries but China leads the world in total production and adoption.
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102 sats \ 5 replies \ @optimism 20h
A lead in installed robotics! Ah! Why do you think that this particular race is so important? 1

Footnotes

  1. Asking because, per the reports I linked you, which no doubt you read, you can see that Japanese and European top robotics manufacturers are selling to China. Especially for Fanuc this is interesting: China is their biggest market in 2025 (thus far). So although you're right that China has the largest installed base, even Chinese high-end fabs use foreign robotics, this is well known, and is only increasing.
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No an expert in robotics or AI but do understand that China is extremely proficient at learning from and then reproducing the technology developed by others. In fact this has been absolute core strategy of Chinas economic development over the last 40 years. Yes top Japanese and European robotics manufacturers will sell their best robots- even perhaps enter joint partnerships with Chinese companies to develop some supply chain production in China. Over time that supply chain and technology is transferred into Chinese hands and control...because Chinas economy is built upon the most efficient supply chains in order to gain competitive advantage in manufacturing. Elon Musk kindly showed the Chinese how to build the best EVs- now they don't need him so much anymore. This is what has occurred across nearly all manufacturing product ranges over the last 40 years and is now occurring at the highest technology levels. Amazing many westerners still don't understand this.
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42 sats \ 3 replies \ @optimism 14h
Elon Musk kindly showed the Chinese how to build the best EVs
Suppose Elon reads this (he's known to lurk in places online so I personally wouldn't bet against it), what would you recommend him to do?
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Firstly Elon can forward me a modest portion of his Bitcoin Treasury, lets say 100 million sats, and then I will give him my advice. Alternatively send me a Cybertruck. I need him to know I am still very fucked off he reneged on his offer to sell Cybertrucks for Sats, after I had already paid a deposit!
Seriously, not sure what I could advise him - there seems to be no easy way to avoid the power and force of an economy that is organised from the top down with extreme determination to create the most efficient productive infrastructure and manufacturing economy. Most of the CCP poliburo are trained as engineers.
Top western producers are seemingly unable to resist the short term profits that come from working with China, even if they know the longer term loss it nearly always results in.
The west is now so far behind all I can do is constantly raise the subject, against the constant cries of denial and disbelief and wonder if there is now certain inevitability about the ongoing decline of western civilisation.
To be fair imo Elon and Trump are aware of the problem and are trying to address it, but its a very challenging and complex one. Perhaps the most difficult aspect is the ignorance and denial of the general public. Peter Hesslers book 'Country Driving' should be compulsory reading for all westerners who want to at least start to understand this problem.
And then we might learn how to eat bitter (Ku Gua) required to fix the problem- but it seems unlikely given our centuries long accumulated sense of entitlement...
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123 sats \ 1 reply \ @optimism 14h
The west is now so far behind all I can do is constantly raise the subject
Right. Except now that you had attention, you blew it, because you literally had nothing to say - except begging (?!?) It took me serious effort to read after the fifth word.
I understand that you don't feel taken serious at times here on SN, but let's be honest, have you actually given thought to all this? You challenge this same thing over and over but you don't have any solution. How on earth is that possible?
PS: Do you really believe that Elon is a short-term operator?!? haha
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Horsewater!
I believe Elon is a realist. And that he already understands the problem while most westerners don't. Have indicated a general basis of solution for readers who are willing to face it. Elon took a similar approach and got shit for it too.
The fact you don't see that, only reinforces my argument. If people cannot see and acknowledge a problem, they are most likely not ready to hear let alone adopt any solutions. No hurry, western civilisation is all that's at stake.
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